NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
116–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28342529116
SA20443329126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams 28 19 3 6
Dante Exum S 22 17 3 3
Naji Marshall S 34 15 3 3
Kessler Edwards S 28 15 3 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 35 14 4 4
Klay Thompson S 28 12 4 7
Dwight Powell 17 11 4 0
Caleb Martin 20 7 3 3
Max Christie S 26 6 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 41 32 9 11
Jeremy Sochan 24 18 7 2
Keldon Johnson 17 18 5 2
Devin Vassell S 34 16 10 6
Harrison Barnes S 31 14 3 1
Chris Paul S 25 9 2 9
Stephon Castle 27 8 2 1
Julian Champagnie 18 7 2 0
Bismack Biyombo S 17 4 6 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Naji Marshall · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Naji Marshall makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
3 Devin Vassell SA
9%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
5 Naji Marshall DAL
8%
6 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
7 Max Christie DAL
7%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
9 Brandon Williams DAL
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
37%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.5 4.5 6.6
2 Naji Marshall DAL 20.1 8.0 4.6
3 Stephon Castle SA 19.9 4.7 4.4
4 Keldon Johnson SA 18.2 5.2 2.6
5 Klay Thompson DAL 17.6 4.0 2.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 16.9 8.9 3.2
7 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 4.8 3.1
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.5 10.2 2.4
9 Harrison Barnes SA 11.4 3.2 1.8
10 Max Christie DAL 11.0 3.6 3.2
11 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.8 2.9 4.1
12 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.6 6.0 2.3
13 Kessler Edwards DAL 9.9 4.8 1.9
14 Dante Exum DAL 9.3 2.5 2.5
15 Brandon Williams DAL 9.1 2.6 3.3
16 Chris Paul SA 8.9 2.3 6.1
17 Caleb Martin DAL 8.6 4.1 2.4
18 Julian Champagnie SA 7.1 3.2 1.5
19 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.0 6.6 1.3
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.4 2.8 1.1
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.3 1.3 0.9
22 Dwight Powell DAL 4.3 3.5 1.4
23 Blake Wesley SA 3.3 1.3 1.5
24 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 0.9 1.0
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.0 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.