NBA games

PHX @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
104–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX27252725104
HOU32253123111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home HOU
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 33 25 0 3
Kevin Durant S 37 19 7 0
Devin Booker S 37 19 3 4
Tyus Jones 20 11 4 4
Oso Ighodaro 28 8 6 0
Bol Bol 17 7 3 1
Ryan Dunn 17 4 2 0
Mason Plumlee S 13 4 6 0
Damion Lee 2 3 0 0
Collin Gillespie 5 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 37 29 7 4
Alperen Sengun S 33 20 4 7
Dillon Brooks S 35 19 1 4
Tari Eason S 26 15 10 1
Fred VanVleet S 28 10 2 4
Jabari Smith Jr. 33 8 4 3
Aaron Holiday 13 6 1 0
Jock Landale 9 3 3 1
Steven Adams 11 1 4 1
Jeff Green 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
5 Jalen Green HOU
8%
6 Tari Eason HOU
8%
7 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Bol Bol PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
41%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 4.4 7.1
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.3 6.5 5.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.0 9.3 5.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.6 4.8 5.7
5 Bradley Beal PHX 20.9 4.3 5.3
6 Amen Thompson HOU 15.3 9.0 5.0
7 Tari Eason HOU 14.6 5.7 2.8
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.1 4.2 2.3
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 6.2 1.4
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.0 2.7 4.9
11 Bol Bol PHX 9.1 4.2 1.1
12 Mason Plumlee PHX 8.5 6.6 1.4
13 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.4 2.2 1.7
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 7.6 2.1 3.0
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 7.4 3.5 2.0
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.8 2.3 1.1
17 Tyus Jones PHX 6.7 2.2 4.7
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.4 2.6 1.3
19 Jock Landale HOU 5.3 3.0 0.9
20 Steven Adams HOU 4.8 5.8 1.8
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.4 1.3 1.2
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.1 1.4 1.5
23 Nate Williams HOU 4.0 1.3 0.9
24 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.2 0.9
25 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.0 1.7 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.7 0.8 0.4
27 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.2 0.9 0.8
28 Oso Ighodaro PHX 1.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.