NBA games

LAC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
119–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30273527119
MIA20323220104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MIA
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 39 30 10 4
Ivica Zubac S 38 26 14 1
James Harden S 39 24 8 11
Amir Coffey 25 13 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 23 8 4 0
Drew Eubanks 9 6 2 1
Nicolas Batum S 33 6 2 2
Kris Dunn S 24 4 2 3
Jordan Miller 7 2 0 1
Kobe Brown 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 42 31 6 7
Andrew Wiggins S 36 22 3 5
Duncan Robinson 27 15 1 0
Pelle Larsson 28 10 0 1
Terry Rozier 16 7 1 4
Bam Adebayo S 35 6 7 7
Davion Mitchell S 17 6 0 0
Kel'el Ware S 18 4 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 6 3 1 0
Haywood Highsmith 14 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
4 Bam Adebayo MIA
10%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
7%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Kevin Love MIA
6%
10 Alec Burks MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
33%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.8 5.6 9.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 4.7 6.5
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.5 9.2 4.5
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 19.9 11.1 2.9
5 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.7 5.1 3.7
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.1 3.1 3.0
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.1 3.3 3.2
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 10.9 2.8 5.5
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.3 8.8 1.5
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 2.9 1.0
11 Amir Coffey LAC 9.2 2.4 1.4
12 Kris Dunn LAC 9.1 3.8 3.8
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.3 3.4 2.1
14 Terry Rozier MIA 7.7 2.6 1.6
15 Alec Burks MIA 6.8 3.3 1.2
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.0 2.8 0.9
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.9 3.2 1.7
18 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.4 1.7 1.0
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 4.1 3.1 1.7
20 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.5 1.4 2.5
21 Kevin Love MIA 3.4 3.0 0.6
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.7 1.9 0.6
23 Kobe Brown LAC 2.6 1.4 0.7
24 Drew Eubanks LAC 2.5 2.3 0.3
25 Patty Mills LAC 2.4 0.7 0.6
26 Cam Christie LAC 1.7 0.8 0.4
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.