NBA games

PHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
105–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI23323119105
TOR29402029118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home TOR
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 31 29 4 3
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 27 20 2 3
Adem Bona 23 13 9 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 13 5 0
Ricky Council IV 33 11 3 1
Jared Butler S 35 9 6 8
Andre Drummond S 25 4 6 1
Justin Edwards S 22 4 1 2
Alex Reese 18 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
A.J. Lawson 36 28 6 4
Orlando Robinson 32 25 12 6
Jared Rhoden S 43 25 12 5
Jamison Battle S 38 11 8 1
Jakob Poeltl S 17 9 5 2
Garrett Temple 22 8 2 8
Colin Castleton S 40 7 14 2
Jamal Shead S 12 5 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Shead · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jamal Shead makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
9%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
7%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
6%
9 Jared Rhoden TOR
6%
10 Orlando Robinson TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.4 5.2 7.3
2 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.5 4.5 5.6
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 21.4 4.9 4.1
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.3 3.3 5.7
5 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.9 8.5 5.4
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 19.8 4.6 2.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.4 8.3 3.7
8 Justin Edwards PHI 10.0 3.2 1.5
9 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 9.7 3.1 1.8
10 Orlando Robinson TOR 8.8 6.3 2.1
11 Jamal Shead TOR 8.4 2.7 4.5
12 Andre Drummond PHI 8.0 7.9 1.3
13 Jared Butler PHI 8.0 2.5 3.7
14 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 7.8 4.0 1.9
15 A.J. Lawson TOR 6.5 2.5 0.9
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.1 3.7 0.8
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.7 1.6 1.6
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 5.5 1.9 1.5
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.3 2.3 0.7
20 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 3.9 0.7
21 Jared Rhoden TOR 4.9 2.3 0.8
22 Colin Castleton TOR 3.9 3.2 0.9
23 Alex Reese PHI 3.5 2.7 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 1.4 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.