NBA games

OKC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC33302530118
BOS30302824112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home BOS
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 34 5 7
Chet Holmgren S 34 23 15 2
Cason Wallace S 30 14 4 3
Luguentz Dort S 39 13 4 0
Isaiah Joe 25 11 2 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 25 11 6 3
Kenrich Williams 22 10 4 1
Ousmane Dieng 6 2 1 0
Aaron Wiggins S 20 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 33 8 8
Derrick White S 37 22 8 5
Al Horford S 34 18 10 6
Jaylen Brown S 38 10 5 2
Jrue Holiday S 35 9 3 2
Luke Kornet 15 9 4 0
Payton Pritchard 25 8 1 1
Sam Hauser 11 3 2 1
Torrey Craig 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luguentz Dort · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Luguentz Dort makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
51%
Jumper
32%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 4.8 6.8
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.2 8.4 6.7
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 5.7 4.5
4 Derrick White BOS 19.0 4.6 5.1
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.1 3.6 3.2
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 14.0 4.5 1.9
7 Chet Holmgren OKC 12.8 8.0 1.8
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 8.7 3.3
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.7 3.3 2.9
10 Al Horford BOS 10.7 7.3 1.8
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 9.7 4.3 3.3
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.2 3.7 1.7
13 Sam Hauser BOS 9.0 3.5 1.1
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.6 2.8 2.0
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.4 2.5 1.7
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.2 5.2 1.8
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.6 2.5 1.3
18 Torrey Craig BOS 5.6 2.8 0.8
19 Neemias Queta BOS 5.6 4.9 0.9
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 3.8 1.6
21 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.2 2.3 1.0
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.3 1.5 1.0
23 Adam Flagler OKC 2.0 0.7 0.3
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 1.9 1.4 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.