NBA games

CHA @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
110–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29202932110
ATL30223734123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home ATL
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 31 11 5
LaMelo Ball S 30 25 2 9
DaQuan Jeffries S 32 20 0 1
Mark Williams S 26 14 14 2
Nick Smith Jr. 19 7 3 2
Marcus Garrett 19 4 1 5
Wendell Moore Jr. 14 3 2 2
Moussa Diabate 12 2 5 2
Jusuf Nurkic 11 2 5 0
Josh Green S 30 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 35 35 7 12
Caris LeVert 26 15 4 2
Georges Niang 26 12 4 3
Vit Krejci 15 11 1 0
Terance Mann 21 10 2 2
Dyson Daniels S 34 10 5 3
Dominick Barlow 18 9 3 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 21 8 4 0
Onyeka Okongwu S 31 7 10 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 14 6 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Trae Young ATL
11%
4 Mark Williams CHA
10%
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
6%
9 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
6%
10 Dominick Barlow ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 25.8 7.7 4.5
2 Trae Young ATL 25.6 3.5 11.9
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 20.1 5.2 6.8
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 18.8 10.7 4.7
5 Caris LeVert ATL 18.3 4.2 3.3
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.9 6.6 5.7
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.0 10.7 3.0
8 Mark Williams CHA 16.1 10.3 2.0
9 Georges Niang ATL 14.3 4.5 2.2
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.9 5.1 2.0
11 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.6 2.6 2.9
12 Terance Mann ATL 11.2 3.4 2.7
13 Vit Krejci ATL 10.0 3.9 3.1
14 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 8.0 6.8 3.4
15 Josh Green CHA 7.4 2.7 2.3
16 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.5 3.4 1.1
17 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.1 2.7 1.1
18 Seth Curry CHA 5.9 2.2 1.0
19 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.7 4.9 1.2
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.1 2.1 0.7
21 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 3.9 1.9 0.8
22 Taj Gibson CHA 3.4 4.4 0.7
23 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.4 2.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.