NBA games

CHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
125123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33362729125
ORL35313522123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ORL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 37 44 5 1
Tre Jones S 30 20 5 4
Josh Giddey S 39 19 13 9
Kevin Huerter 25 13 5 3
Matas Buzelis S 29 11 5 2
Dalen Terry 13 5 2 1
Julian Phillips 20 4 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 9 3 1 1
Jalen Smith 26 3 9 3
Zach Collins S 12 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 38 20 9 3
Cole Anthony S 24 20 4 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 19 4 2
Franz Wagner S 38 18 2 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 26 17 5 2
Goga Bitadze 17 8 1 3
Anthony Black 20 8 3 2
Tristan da Silva 21 6 2 3
Jett Howard 10 4 0 0
Caleb Houstan 8 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Zach Collins makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
8%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
6 Tre Jones CHI
8%
7 Dalen Terry CHI
7%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
9 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
10 Cory Joseph ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
65%
Jumper
19%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 28.3 6.7 5.9
2 Franz Wagner ORL 26.3 6.3 4.2
3 Josh Giddey CHI 20.3 7.8 6.1
4 Coby White CHI 18.7 4.1 4.6
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.1 4.2 2.5
6 Cole Anthony ORL 10.8 4.0 3.3
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.6 8.3 2.2
8 Zach Collins CHI 10.5 6.7 2.0
9 Anthony Black ORL 9.8 3.7 2.2
10 Tre Jones CHI 8.3 2.7 2.7
11 Jalen Smith CHI 7.9 4.9 1.1
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 7.7 2.8 1.6
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 7.5 2.0 1.7
14 Julian Phillips CHI 5.3 2.3 0.6
15 Dalen Terry CHI 5.2 1.7 1.3
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.0 1.8 1.3
17 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.0 2.0 1.1
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 5.4 1.2
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.6 1.5
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.6 4.3 0.9
21 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.6 1.3
22 Jahmir Young CHI 4.1 1.4 1.4
23 Mac McClung ORL 3.8 1.8 1.3
24 Emanuel Miller CHI 3.7 1.7 0.5
25 Cory Joseph ORL 3.6 1.3 1.0
26 E.J. Liddell CHI 3.3 1.8 0.6
27 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.9 1.2 0.6
28 Gary Harris ORL 2.5 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.