NBA games

LAC @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
120–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC21303930120
NO28333729127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NO
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 36 29 8 3
James Harden S 40 25 4 17
Ivica Zubac S 38 19 11 5
Kris Dunn S 31 11 3 5
Derrick Jones Jr. 26 11 3 1
Amir Coffey 20 9 1 1
Nicolas Batum S 28 8 2 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 16 8 2 1
Kobe Brown 4 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 33 23 3 7
Zion Williamson S 33 22 10 12
Trey Murphy III S 36 21 4 3
Karlo Matkovic 20 15 4 1
Jose Alvarado 25 14 2 4
Bruce Brown S 30 12 5 5
Jordan Hawkins 22 11 3 1
Yves Missi S 26 9 8 1
Mo Bamba 15 0 7 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bruce Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Bruce Brown makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
10%
7 CJ McCollum NO
8%
8 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
9 Jose Alvarado NO
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
19%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 26.0 5.7 10.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 24.9 7.0 5.6
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.8 5.7 4.3
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 21.0 12.1 2.9
5 Trey Murphy III NO 20.2 5.0 4.3
6 CJ McCollum NO 18.9 4.1 4.4
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 13.6 3.5 3.7
8 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.4 3.8 1.6
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.4 3.1 1.2
10 Yves Missi NO 10.4 7.7 1.3
11 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.0 5.8 1.5
12 Jose Alvarado NO 9.8 3.4 4.8
13 Amir Coffey LAC 9.7 2.6 1.4
14 Kris Dunn LAC 8.9 4.3 3.9
15 Bruce Brown NO 6.3 3.4 1.7
16 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.1 2.9 1.0
17 Mo Bamba NO 5.8 5.2 0.8
18 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.4 2.2 0.7
19 Antonio Reeves NO 5.2 1.7 1.1
20 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.3 2.7 0.6
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.2 1.7 0.7
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.8 0.8 0.7
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.1 1.2 0.4
24 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.