NBA games

MIL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
114–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28273326114
IND32253127115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home IND
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 36 23 7 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 19 17 7
Taurean Prince S 34 18 6 3
Damian Lillard S 37 15 3 11
Kyle Kuzma S 31 9 4 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 17 9 2 4
Gary Trent Jr. 20 9 1 0
AJ Green 20 6 1 4
Jericho Sims 12 6 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 37 25 12 5
Bennedict Mathurin 22 17 4 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 14 3 10
Myles Turner S 28 13 6 2
Andrew Nembhard S 29 12 2 3
T.J. McConnell 21 12 2 7
Thomas Bryant 19 10 3 0
Aaron Nesmith S 31 9 4 1
Obi Toppin 6 3 0 0
Ben Sheppard 15 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
4 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Myles Turner IND
9%
8 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
32%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.5 11.6 6.1
2 Damian Lillard MIL 22.4 4.2 5.2
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.4 3.5 10.9
4 Pascal Siakam IND 21.2 6.4 3.2
5 Myles Turner IND 17.0 6.0 2.3
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.5 4.4 2.9
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.6 6.9 2.3
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.0 4.6 1.8
9 Brook Lopez MIL 13.6 6.5 1.9
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.6 2.8 1.6
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.7 3.2 5.5
12 Taurean Prince MIL 9.8 3.6 2.3
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.1 2.8 3.5
14 AJ Green MIL 8.5 2.7 1.8
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.4 3.3 1.6
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.3 1.9 4.2
17 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 3.3 1.4
18 Thomas Bryant IND 6.3 3.6 0.9
19 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.1 2.2 1.8
20 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.3 2.1 1.0
21 Jericho Sims MIL 4.1 5.0 0.9
22 Quenton Jackson IND 4.0 1.8 1.5
23 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.2 1.7 1.1
24 Jarace Walker IND 3.2 1.7 1.0
25 Pete Nance MIL 2.9 1.6 0.7
26 Tony Bradley IND 2.9 1.7 0.5
27 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.3 0.6
28 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.