NBA games

WSH @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
103–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH21282529103
DET35312730123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DET
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marcus Smart 21 16 2 2
Bub Carrington 31 15 3 3
Jordan Poole S 26 15 5 3
Richaun Holmes 22 14 8 2
Kyshawn George S 31 12 5 2
Corey Kispert 26 10 6 3
Khris Middleton S 23 8 3 0
Alex Sarr S 23 8 7 2
Justin Champagnie S 31 5 8 1
Anthony Gill 2 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 27 8 10
Jalen Duren S 25 15 13 0
Malik Beasley 22 14 4 2
Tobias Harris S 31 12 8 1
Dennis Schroder 23 11 1 4
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 23 11 4 1
Ausar Thompson S 20 8 5 1
Simone Fontecchio 18 8 5 2
Isaiah Stewart 21 7 7 4
Lindy Waters III 2 6 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
15%
2 Jalen Duren DET
13%
3 Tobias Harris DET
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
5 Cade Cunningham DET
9%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
8%
9 Alex Sarr WSH
7%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.8 5.4 10.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 24.7 4.3 4.4
3 Tobias Harris DET 18.0 6.7 2.4
4 Jalen Duren DET 15.1 11.4 3.0
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 2.9 2.0
6 Khris Middleton WSH 13.3 3.8 3.7
7 Alex Sarr WSH 13.0 6.4 2.4
8 Richaun Holmes WSH 11.6 7.3 1.9
9 Kyshawn George WSH 11.2 5.7 3.5
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.2 2.8 1.8
11 Bub Carrington WSH 11.2 4.2 4.2
12 Ausar Thompson DET 11.2 5.7 2.9
13 Dennis Schroder DET 10.7 3.3 4.7
14 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.5 3.2 1.9
15 Marcus Smart WSH 8.2 1.8 2.1
16 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 7.7 3.8 1.0
17 Jaylen Nowell WSH 7.3 2.4 1.7
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.8 5.5 1.4
19 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.8 1.1
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.8 4.3 1.0
21 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.5 3.4 1.2
22 Jaylen Martin WSH 3.8 1.5 0.5
23 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 0.9 2.0
24 Paul Reed DET 3.3 3.2 0.7
25 Colby Jones WSH 2.6 1.7 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.2 0.5
27 Lindy Waters III DET 1.8 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.