NBA games

NY @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
133–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY37293730133
SAC22292627104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home SAC
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 26 9 3
OG Anunoby S 37 24 7 8
Miles McBride S 32 21 3 7
Josh Hart S 31 18 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 34 15 3 8
Landry Shamet 24 13 3 0
Cameron Payne 14 6 0 3
MarJon Beauchamp 5 3 2 0
Delon Wright 6 3 2 0
Mitchell Robinson 16 2 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 30 21 1 3
Zach LaVine S 36 17 4 3
Isaac Jones 19 12 5 2
DeMar DeRozan S 28 11 1 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 10 13 1
Keon Ellis 18 9 3 0
Keegan Murray S 30 9 2 0
Isaiah Crawford 6 5 1 0
Trey Lyles 14 3 1 1
Devin Carter 12 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes 3-foot dunk (Zach LaVine assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
13%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
4 Malik Monk SAC
10%
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
8 OG Anunoby NY
8%
9 Zach LaVine SAC
7%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine SAC 24.3 4.4 4.8
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 4.7 6.3
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.0 9.9 2.2
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.3 4.6 6.6
5 Josh Hart NY 17.2 9.7 5.0
6 OG Anunoby NY 16.3 4.4 2.4
7 Mikal Bridges NY 15.4 3.9 4.0
8 Keegan Murray SAC 13.9 5.8 2.0
9 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 10.9 9.3 2.7
10 Keon Ellis SAC 10.0 3.5 1.7
11 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.1 6.5 1.3
12 Miles McBride NY 8.6 3.0 2.2
13 Cameron Payne NY 5.2 1.5 2.4
14 Trey Lyles SAC 5.0 3.5 1.8
15 Landry Shamet NY 4.7 1.2 0.7
16 Devin Carter SAC 4.7 2.1 1.2
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.5 3.2 0.5
18 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.9 1.5 1.0
19 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 1.6 0.7
20 Mason Jones SAC 3.3 1.5 1.2
21 Anton Watson NY 2.8 1.2 1.0
22 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.8 1.2 0.7
23 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.7 1.6 0.6
24 Doug McDermott SAC 2.4 0.6 0.4
25 MarJon Beauchamp NY 2.1 1.0 0.5
26 Delon Wright NY 1.6 0.9 1.3
27 Matt Ryan NY 1.3 0.6 0.3
28 Tyler Kolek NY 1.1 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.