NBA games

POR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
120–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR27224328120
GS35333428130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home GS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 41 34 16 6
Anfernee Simons S 39 32 2 2
Donovan Clingan S 32 15 9 6
Scoot Henderson 30 12 2 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 9 7 8
Jabari Walker 11 9 2 1
Toumani Camara S 37 7 1 2
Duop Reath 15 2 3 2
Dalano Banton 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Payton II 28 26 2 1
Stephen Curry S 34 24 2 3
Buddy Hield 25 20 2 7
Moses Moody S 30 20 2 0
Jimmy Butler III S 35 15 10 10
Quinten Post S 25 11 7 2
Kevon Looney 20 6 6 3
Draymond Green S 28 4 4 7
Gui Santos 15 4 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
14%
3 Deni Avdija POR
11%
4 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
5 Toumani Camara POR
8%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
8%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Stephen Curry GS
8%
9 Draymond Green GS
8%
10 Moses Moody GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
35%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 26.7 4.2 6.5
2 Anfernee Simons POR 22.8 3.5 4.9
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.4 5.0 3.3
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.1 5.6 5.3
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.2 6.1 4.5
6 Scoot Henderson POR 15.7 3.4 4.6
7 Draymond Green GS 13.6 7.8 6.7
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.5 6.3 3.0
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.6 4.2 2.1
10 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.9 1.5
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.0 3.0 1.6
12 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 5.7 1.2
13 Quinten Post GS 8.3 4.2 1.5
14 Gary Payton II GS 8.0 3.0 1.4
15 Donovan Clingan POR 7.0 7.8 1.4
16 Gui Santos GS 6.2 3.4 2.0
17 Dalano Banton POR 5.7 2.1 1.7
18 Duop Reath POR 4.9 2.5 0.8
19 Kevon Looney GS 4.7 5.0 0.9
20 Kris Murray POR 4.1 2.5 0.9
21 Kevin Knox II GS 3.1 1.6 0.4
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.6 0.8
24 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.1 0.8 0.4
25 Justin Minaya POR 1.8 0.9 0.4
26 Bryce McGowens POR 1.8 0.7 0.4
27 Rayan Rupert POR 1.8 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.