NBA games

DAL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
133–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL28324132133
SA34293828129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home SA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie 37 28 7 6
Klay Thompson S 36 26 2 3
Naji Marshall S 39 23 5 3
Kessler Edwards S 35 22 11 3
Max Christie S 28 12 4 5
Dante Exum S 24 10 2 1
Dwight Powell 21 9 6 3
Caleb Martin 20 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 38 29 8 0
Keldon Johnson 29 28 5 0
Devin Vassell S 34 24 4 3
Stephon Castle 30 14 5 6
De'Aaron Fox S 34 14 4 8
Chris Paul S 22 6 2 9
Julian Champagnie 15 5 1 0
Blake Wesley 11 3 0 0
Bismack Biyombo S 17 3 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 10 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bismack Biyombo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bismack Biyombo makes dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
11%
2 Devin Vassell SA
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
4 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
7 Klay Thompson DAL
9%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
28%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.8 4.8 6.5
2 Stephon Castle SA 19.3 5.3 4.1
3 Naji Marshall DAL 18.1 8.4 4.5
4 P.J. Washington DAL 17.4 9.2 3.2
5 Klay Thompson DAL 17.3 4.4 2.7
6 Keldon Johnson SA 17.2 4.9 2.7
7 Devin Vassell SA 16.5 4.6 2.8
8 Daniel Gafford DAL 13.5 10.3 2.1
9 Max Christie DAL 11.7 3.7 3.3
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.4 2.8 4.1
11 Harrison Barnes SA 9.8 2.7 1.7
12 Chris Paul SA 9.8 2.6 6.3
13 Dante Exum DAL 8.8 2.5 2.9
14 Caleb Martin DAL 8.8 4.3 2.2
15 Kessler Edwards DAL 8.3 4.5 2.1
16 Julian Champagnie SA 7.9 3.2 1.7
17 Bismack Biyombo SA 7.7 6.7 1.3
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.6 2.5 1.1
19 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.6 2.5 1.0
20 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.5 1.3 1.0
21 Dwight Powell DAL 3.9 3.1 1.2
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.3 1.4 1.5
23 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.2 1.2 1.1
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.