NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
140–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34333439140
OKC32412628127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 35 18 8
Jamal Murray S 40 34 4 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 17 6 2
Peyton Watson 24 16 1 0
Russell Westbrook S 33 16 5 7
Christian Braun S 36 14 5 5
Jalen Pickett 18 8 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 11 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luguentz Dort S 34 26 7 0
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 36 25 3 7
Isaiah Hartenstein S 26 20 7 2
Alex Caruso 20 13 1 0
Cason Wallace 29 12 3 8
Jalen Williams S 14 12 2 6
Chet Holmgren S 29 8 4 1
Aaron Wiggins 22 8 4 1
Isaiah Joe 16 3 2 3
Ousmane Dieng 2 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Russell Westbrook · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Russell Westbrook makes 13-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Christian Braun DEN
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
11%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
7 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
8%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.9 4.8 6.7
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 27.3 13.4 10.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.4 3.5 5.9
4 Jalen Williams OKC 23.8 5.0 6.4
5 Christian Braun DEN 18.7 5.6 3.5
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.5 8.5 2.2
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 16.0 4.5 2.3
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 12.9 4.5 4.6
9 Chet Holmgren OKC 12.6 7.9 1.8
10 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.5 9.2 3.5
11 Cason Wallace OKC 10.0 3.2 2.4
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.5 1.9
13 Alex Caruso OKC 8.0 2.9 2.6
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.7 2.6 1.8
15 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.5 3.1 0.8
16 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.3 2.5 1.5
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 6.1 2.0 2.0
18 Peyton Watson DEN 5.6 3.4 1.3
19 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 3.9 2.1
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.2 2.6 1.2
21 Dario Saric DEN 4.0 2.8 1.5
22 Vlatko Cancar DEN 4.0 2.1 1.0
23 Dillon Jones OKC 3.7 2.3 1.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.7 0.6
25 Trey Alexander DEN 2.6 1.5 0.6
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.3 0.5
27 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.5 4.7 0.5
28 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.