NBA games

PHX @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34253128118
MEM26313825120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MEM
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 41 35 5 5
Devin Booker S 40 26 9 6
Tyus Jones S 29 12 3 7
Nick Richards S 20 10 12 2
Mason Plumlee 26 10 8 1
Royce O'Neale 28 9 4 2
Grayson Allen 25 9 1 3
Bol Bol S 17 7 0 0
Collin Gillespie 13 0 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 34 29 4 12
Cam Spencer 20 16 3 1
GG Jackson S 26 14 4 3
Jay Huff S 25 14 3 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 27 13 1 2
Lamar Stevens 22 13 5 3
Desmond Bane S 34 10 7 3
Marvin Bagley III 22 9 5 0
Jaylen Wells S 23 2 6 2
John Konchar 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Nick Richards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
17%
2 Ja Morant MEM
15%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
5 Nick Richards PHX
12%
6 Zach Edey MEM
10%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
8 Bol Bol PHX
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
0%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
52%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.9 3.9 8.3
2 Ja Morant MEM 25.9 4.2 8.0
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.1 6.5 5.2
4 Desmond Bane MEM 24.5 7.4 6.9
5 Nick Richards PHX 12.1 8.5 1.2
6 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.9 3.7 2.1
7 Grayson Allen PHX 10.2 2.5 2.8
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.3 3.7 2.2
9 Bol Bol PHX 9.2 4.7 1.2
10 Zach Edey MEM 9.0 8.6 1.2
11 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.6 2.2 3.3
12 Mason Plumlee PHX 8.3 6.4 1.7
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.3 2.9 2.9
14 Tyus Jones PHX 6.9 2.2 4.7
15 GG Jackson MEM 6.3 2.8 1.5
16 Marvin Bagley III MEM 4.8 3.0 0.6
17 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.7 1.4 1.4
18 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.9 2.5 0.7
19 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.8 2.0 0.7
20 Cam Spencer MEM 3.7 1.2 1.2
21 John Konchar MEM 3.3 1.8 0.8
22 Damion Lee PHX 3.2 0.9 0.5
23 Jay Huff MEM 3.2 1.4 0.8
24 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.6 1.0 0.9
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.2 0.6 0.7
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 1.6 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.