NBA games

ORL @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
84–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1927162284
HOU2328242297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 25 5 3
Franz Wagner S 34 15 7 5
Cole Anthony S 31 9 4 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 8 12 1
Jonathan Isaac 14 8 3 0
Caleb Houstan 6 5 0 0
Goga Bitadze 12 4 2 0
Trevelin Queen 12 4 3 0
Anthony Black 20 3 2 2
Gary Harris 11 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 32 20 7 0
Dillon Brooks S 37 17 4 1
Jalen Green S 32 15 7 8
Alperen Sengun S 38 14 14 4
Steven Adams 23 11 17 1
Jeff Green 19 9 4 0
Tari Eason S 33 6 7 2
Aaron Holiday 16 5 1 4
Jock Landale 2 0 1 0
Jae'Sean Tate 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Jalen Green HOU
13%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
9%
6 Tari Eason HOU
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Cole Anthony ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.7 6.6 5.1
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.4 5.2 3.9
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.6 9.6 4.9
4 Jalen Green HOU 19.7 4.5 4.4
5 Amen Thompson HOU 14.7 9.6 4.5
6 Tari Eason HOU 14.6 5.9 2.3
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.5 4.0 2.2
8 Cole Anthony ORL 13.3 4.6 3.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.8 6.1 1.2
10 Fred VanVleet HOU 11.6 2.9 4.2
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 8.5 1.9
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.5 3.0 1.5
13 Anthony Black ORL 8.9 3.6 1.7
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 8.2 2.6 1.6
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.6 2.9 1.3
16 Jeff Green HOU 6.5 2.2 1.0
17 Jock Landale HOU 5.5 3.2 0.9
18 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.1 4.3 1.2
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.0 4.0 0.7
20 Tristan da Silva ORL 4.9 1.8 1.2
21 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 1.6 1.3
22 Steven Adams HOU 4.0 4.6 1.4
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.8 1.2 1.1
24 Nate Williams HOU 3.7 1.5 0.7
25 Gary Harris ORL 3.6 1.8 0.8
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.6 1.8 0.6
27 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.4 2.2 0.8
28 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.9 1.5 0.5
29 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.