NBA games

IND @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
103–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27212530103
CHI27402727121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CHI
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 23 15 4 2
Pascal Siakam S 24 13 1 4
Ben Sheppard 21 12 2 3
Obi Toppin 20 10 3 1
Aaron Nesmith S 23 9 5 2
Andrew Nembhard S 22 8 3 3
T.J. McConnell 9 6 0 1
Jarace Walker 14 6 2 2
Tony Bradley 8 6 2 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 23 5 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 34 29 7 4
Josh Giddey S 28 29 10 4
Kevin Huerter 34 13 4 1
Nikola Vucevic 24 11 11 1
Julian Phillips 17 9 4 1
Tre Jones S 34 8 3 8
Matas Buzelis S 24 8 4 1
Zach Collins S 23 7 9 6
Jevon Carter 3 5 0 1
Patrick Williams 13 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Coby White makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Coby White CHI
18%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
5 Matas Buzelis CHI
8%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
8 Myles Turner IND
7%
9 Tre Jones CHI
7%
10 Zach Collins CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Josh Giddey CHI 23.1 9.8 8.0
2 Coby White CHI 22.7 4.1 4.6
3 Pascal Siakam IND 20.6 6.4 2.9
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 18.4 4.8 3.0
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.7 9.5 3.1
6 Myles Turner IND 15.4 5.7 2.1
7 Aaron Nesmith IND 15.1 4.5 1.7
8 Zach Collins CHI 13.5 8.1 2.4
9 Matas Buzelis CHI 13.3 4.7 2.3
10 Kevin Huerter CHI 11.7 2.9 2.4
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.3 5.9
12 Tre Jones CHI 10.9 3.4 3.2
13 Obi Toppin IND 9.7 3.9 1.8
14 Patrick Williams CHI 8.4 3.5 1.5
15 T.J. McConnell IND 8.2 2.0 4.8
16 Jalen Smith CHI 7.8 5.0 1.2
17 Thomas Bryant IND 6.8 4.3 1.3
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 3.4 1.3
19 Julian Phillips CHI 5.5 2.7 0.8
20 Dalen Terry CHI 5.4 1.9 1.1
21 Quenton Jackson IND 4.9 1.9 1.4
22 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.6 1.9 1.4
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.7 1.2 1.1
24 Jarace Walker IND 3.1 1.9 0.9
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.5 1.1 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.7 0.3
27 RayJ Dennis IND 1.4 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.