NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH33271925104
TOR33263426119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 23 16 3 1
Alex Sarr S 30 16 11 2
Tristan Vukcevic 25 15 7 2
Corey Kispert 22 13 1 2
Kyshawn George S 28 13 3 3
Justin Champagnie 24 6 9 2
Bub Carrington S 26 5 4 5
Anthony Gill 14 5 3 1
Jaylen Martin 9 5 3 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 8 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
A.J. Lawson 33 32 12 0
Immanuel Quickley S 28 15 6 6
RJ Barrett S 27 14 10 8
Scottie Barnes S 26 14 13 2
Orlando Robinson S 26 13 11 4
Jared Rhoden S 26 11 3 0
Jamal Shead 27 8 4 1
Colin Castleton 27 7 9 3
Jamison Battle 12 5 3 0
Garrett Temple 9 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 7-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
16%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
6 Kyshawn George WSH
9%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Jamal Shead TOR
8%
9 A.J. Lawson TOR
8%
10 Alex Sarr WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
28%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 25.5 4.3 5.1
2 RJ Barrett TOR 24.3 6.0 6.2
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.2 8.3 5.1
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.8 4.2 5.4
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.1 8.2 3.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.2 4.6 3.6
7 Alex Sarr WSH 12.8 6.3 2.3
8 Kyshawn George WSH 11.9 5.9 3.6
9 Bub Carrington WSH 11.8 4.3 4.4
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.8 3.0 1.9
11 Jamal Shead TOR 8.0 2.3 4.5
12 Orlando Robinson TOR 7.8 5.6 1.9
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.0 4.1 0.9
14 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.0 3.3 0.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 5.9 3.7 0.7
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 2.3 0.7
17 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.8 1.9 0.7
18 Jared Rhoden TOR 4.1 2.3 0.7
19 JT Thor WSH 3.6 1.6 0.5
20 Colin Castleton TOR 3.2 2.6 0.7
21 AJ Johnson WSH 2.8 0.9 0.8
22 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.4 0.7
23 Jaylen Martin WSH 2.2 0.9 0.3
24 Anthony Gill WSH 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.