NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
105–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA21312132105
MIA34241925102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 35 5 5
Mark Williams S 29 24 10 2
LaMelo Ball S 36 15 6 10
DaQuan Jeffries S 34 8 3 1
Jusuf Nurkic 10 6 2 0
Malachi Flynn 15 5 2 4
Nick Smith Jr. 16 4 1 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 7 3 0 0
Josh Green S 32 3 6 2
Moussa Diabate 9 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 38 23 14 8
Tyler Herro S 33 21 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 34 19 7 2
Duncan Robinson 26 14 0 1
Davion Mitchell S 23 7 3 3
Haywood Highsmith 31 7 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 14 5 4 1
Terry Rozier 14 4 6 1
Kel'el Ware S 23 2 5 3
Pelle Larsson 4 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
3 Mark Williams CHA
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
7%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
8 Moussa Diabate CHA
7%
9 Jusuf Nurkic CHA
6%
10 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 24.5 8.4 4.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.3 9.6 4.1
3 Tyler Herro MIA 24.3 4.6 6.9
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 21.4 5.0 3.9
5 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.3 4.5 5.6
6 Mark Williams CHA 15.2 10.2 1.8
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 14.0 3.5 3.2
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.4 2.6 2.9
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 11.2 9.8 1.6
10 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.2 2.9 5.9
11 Terry Rozier MIA 9.3 2.9 2.0
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.4 3.5 2.1
13 Alec Burks MIA 7.8 3.6 1.4
14 Seth Curry CHA 7.5 2.6 1.1
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 7.3 7.1 3.3
16 Josh Green CHA 7.2 2.5 2.2
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.9 3.7 1.9
18 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.2 5.4 1.2
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.4 3.6 2.1
20 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.1 2.6 1.1
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.8 1.9 1.1
22 Kevin Love MIA 4.7 3.5 0.9
23 Taj Gibson CHA 3.9 4.4 0.8
24 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.8 1.6 2.7
25 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 3.6 1.9 0.7
26 Malachi Flynn CHA 3.6 1.2 0.9
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 2.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.