NBA games

LAL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
108–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL28193229108
BKN16323330111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BKN
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gabe Vincent S 34 24 0 3
Luka Doncic S 41 22 12 12
Dalton Knecht S 41 19 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 24 17 8 0
Austin Reaves S 36 17 8 10
Jarred Vanderbilt 27 7 6 2
Trey Jemison III 18 2 3 0
Shake Milton 6 0 0 1
Alex Len S 13 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Noah Clowney 23 19 5 0
Cameron Johnson S 33 18 7 5
Keon Johnson S 25 18 3 3
Tyrese Martin 27 14 3 3
Nic Claxton S 31 12 6 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 8 7 1
D'Angelo Russell S 29 8 3 7
Ziaire Williams S 31 7 9 2
Jalen Wilson 15 4 3 0
Reece Beekman 9 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Gabe Vincent · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Gabe Vincent makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cameron Johnson BKN
15%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
15%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
15%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
5 Keon Johnson BKN
11%
6 Ziaire Williams BKN
11%
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN
10%
8 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
9%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
0%
10 Dalton Knecht LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 26.8 8.3 8.5
2 Austin Reaves LAL 19.4 4.2 4.8
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 18.1 4.2 3.4
4 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.3 3.0 4.0
5 Nic Claxton BKN 12.0 7.3 3.1
6 Trendon Watford BKN 11.1 3.8 3.2
7 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.7 3.9 1.5
8 Keon Johnson BKN 10.5 4.2 2.4
9 Noah Clowney BKN 8.7 3.9 1.1
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 8.5 2.8 1.3
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.3 2.5 1.5
12 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.2 6.7 1.9
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.7 2.7 1.0
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.4 1.9 1.5
15 Jordan Goodwin LAL 5.8 3.6 1.1
16 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.4 4.7 1.0
17 Shake Milton LAL 4.7 1.9 1.4
18 Trey Jemison III LAL 4.3 2.8 0.6
19 Cam Reddish LAL 4.1 2.1 0.9
20 Christian Koloko LAL 2.2 1.9 0.5
21 Markieff Morris LAL 2.1 0.8 0.6
22 Alex Len LAL 1.7 1.1 0.5
23 Reece Beekman BKN 1.6 0.8 0.8
24 Maxwell Lewis BKN 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.