NBA games

UTAH @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
108–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH24232239108
BOS25283724114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home BOS
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
John Collins S 34 28 10 2
Brice Sensabaugh 25 22 4 5
Collin Sexton S 33 16 3 13
Walker Kessler S 31 11 10 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 23 8 4 2
Isaiah Collier S 28 8 1 4
Kyle Filipowski 16 6 5 0
Cody Williams 16 5 4 1
Johnny Juzang S 19 4 4 0
KJ Martin 14 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Sam Hauser S 35 33 6 1
Jaylen Brown S 38 26 8 7
Derrick White S 36 18 5 10
Jrue Holiday S 32 10 6 4
Neemias Queta 17 8 8 1
Payton Pritchard 26 8 1 3
Torrey Craig 12 6 3 0
Luke Kornet S 30 5 8 0
Baylor Scheierman 12 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Layup (2 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 1-foot layup (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
2 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
9%
4 Derrick White BOS
8%
5 John Collins UTAH
7%
6 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
7 Jaylen Brown BOS
7%
8 Kyle Filipowski UTAH
7%
9 Neemias Queta BOS
7%
10 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
33%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.2 8.2 7.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.4 5.2 4.6
3 John Collins UTAH 20.0 7.4 1.6
4 Derrick White BOS 19.6 4.5 5.5
5 Collin Sexton UTAH 19.4 3.3 4.6
6 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 16.6 6.9 3.1
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.6 4.0 3.4
8 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 15.3 5.6 1.3
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.9 11.7 1.9
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 12.2 3.3 2.2
11 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.7 3.7 7.0
12 Al Horford BOS 11.1 7.5 1.9
13 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.7 4.1 3.4
14 KJ Martin UTAH 9.2 3.8 1.4
15 Johnny Juzang UTAH 8.5 3.4 1.0
16 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.4 2.7 2.2
17 Sam Hauser BOS 7.8 3.4 1.3
18 Cody Williams UTAH 7.0 2.9 1.5
19 Luke Kornet BOS 6.8 5.5 2.1
20 Torrey Craig BOS 5.6 2.7 0.8
21 Neemias Queta BOS 4.8 4.0 0.9
22 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.3 1.5 1.0
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.7 0.9
24 Jaden Springer UTAH 2.5 1.3 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.4 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.