NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI31262343123
ATL33333135132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes S 39 35 7 5
Ricky Council IV 29 19 4 3
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 28 17 3 4
Adem Bona 24 12 2 1
Jared Butler S 24 11 3 6
Lonnie Walker IV S 30 11 5 5
Guerschon Yabusele S 27 7 3 4
Justin Edwards S 20 6 1 1
Alex Reese 18 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dyson Daniels S 33 25 6 9
Zaccharie Risacher S 31 22 8 2
Terance Mann 33 19 6 4
Georges Niang 26 18 4 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 30 15 5 3
Mouhamed Gueye S 21 14 7 2
Vit Krejci 17 8 1 4
Keaton Wallace S 31 7 2 6
Clint Capela 18 4 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
11%
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
11%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Quentin Grimes PHI
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
42%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.8 3.4 12.2
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.9 3.5 6.2
3 Quentin Grimes PHI 20.6 5.0 4.1
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 20.4 4.7 2.5
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 18.0 6.2 5.3
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 17.5 10.8 3.2
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.2 4.7 1.8
8 Georges Niang ATL 13.2 4.4 2.1
9 Justin Edwards PHI 10.5 3.4 1.7
10 Terance Mann ATL 10.1 3.3 2.5
11 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 9.6 3.3 2.3
12 Vit Krejci ATL 9.1 3.1 2.9
13 Andre Drummond PHI 8.6 8.0 1.5
14 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 8.2 4.3 1.9
15 Jared Butler PHI 7.9 2.3 3.7
16 Clint Capela ATL 7.3 7.2 1.1
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.3 3.1 1.1
18 Adem Bona PHI 5.6 4.3 0.7
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.4 1.7 2.0
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 5.0 1.5 1.4
21 Ricky Council IV PHI 4.8 1.8 1.3
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.3 2.2 0.7
23 Alex Reese PHI 3.9 2.8 0.7
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.5 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.