NBA games

SAC @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
110–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
SAC2326262213110
LAC2031212514111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home LAC
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 44 31 7 10
Zach LaVine S 44 30 7 2
Keegan Murray S 47 15 6 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 42 9 17 7
Devin Carter 12 8 3 1
Keon Ellis S 31 8 0 2
Jake LaRavia 31 7 3 2
Trey Lyles 11 2 5 1
Markelle Fultz 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 44 29 9 11
Ivica Zubac S 44 22 14 2
Kawhi Leonard S 40 17 4 2
Derrick Jones Jr. 28 17 3 0
Nicolas Batum S 28 9 4 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 9 2 4
Kris Dunn S 27 4 2 4
Kobe Brown 4 2 0 0
Amir Coffey 27 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
10%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
6 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
7 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
9 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
24%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.9 4.7 5.2
2 James Harden LAC 24.5 5.0 8.6
3 Zach LaVine SAC 23.9 4.1 4.8
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.0 5.6 4.0
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.3 11.1 2.5
6 Keegan Murray SAC 12.7 5.7 1.9
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.5 3.2 3.4
8 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 10.5 7.7 2.0
9 Amir Coffey LAC 10.1 2.7 1.4
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 2.9 1.2
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.7 3.8 1.5
12 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 4.2 3.9
13 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.9 2.7 0.9
14 Jake LaRavia SAC 5.4 3.1 1.4
15 Trey Lyles SAC 5.2 3.3 1.6
16 Devin Carter SAC 4.3 1.7 1.0
17 Markelle Fultz SAC 3.8 1.4 1.0
18 Isaac Jones SAC 3.5 1.5 0.6
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.4 1.5 1.1
20 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.4 2.6 0.6
21 Skal Labissiere SAC 2.8 1.2 0.6
22 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.8 0.5
23 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.7 1.6 0.5
24 Patty Mills LAC 2.4 0.7 0.6
25 Kobe Brown LAC 2.1 1.1 0.6
26 Jordan Miller LAC 2.1 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.