NBA games

DET @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET31333322119
POR28302826112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home POR
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 28 4 5
Tobias Harris S 37 20 9 2
Jalen Duren S 29 18 12 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 27 13 7 2
Dennis Schroder 24 12 4 4
Malik Beasley 26 10 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 19 5 6 2
Simone Fontecchio 11 5 3 2
Ausar Thompson S 21 5 6 2
Ronald Holland II 10 3 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 36 34 2 1
Jerami Grant S 36 25 2 1
Scoot Henderson 32 15 5 2
Shaedon Sharpe S 28 12 4 1
Jabari Walker 14 9 9 1
Toumani Camara S 33 7 5 5
Duop Reath 25 5 3 1
Donovan Clingan S 22 3 9 3
Dalano Banton 15 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deni Avdija POR
10%
3 Jalen Duren DET
10%
4 Tobias Harris DET
10%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
7 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Shaedon Sharpe POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
23%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 25.5 5.1 7.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 23.1 3.5 5.3
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.6 5.0 3.9
4 Tobias Harris DET 17.8 6.0 2.1
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.6 6.0 4.6
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 2.8 2.0
7 Toumani Camara POR 14.8 5.9 2.9
8 Jalen Duren DET 14.5 10.7 3.1
9 Scoot Henderson POR 14.4 3.1 4.7
10 Jerami Grant POR 13.1 4.0 2.2
11 Ausar Thompson DET 12.3 5.6 3.2
12 Dennis Schroder DET 10.0 3.1 4.4
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.8 3.0 1.7
14 Jabari Walker POR 8.8 5.3 1.3
15 Donovan Clingan POR 8.6 8.8 1.5
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 7.1 5.1 1.4
17 Dalano Banton POR 6.4 1.7 2.1
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.5 2.4 1.0
19 Kris Murray POR 4.9 2.6 1.0
20 Simone Fontecchio DET 4.9 3.3 1.0
21 Duop Reath POR 4.5 2.2 0.7
22 Marcus Sasser DET 3.9 1.0 2.0
23 Paul Reed DET 3.3 3.2 0.6
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Bryce McGowens POR 2.2 0.9 0.5
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.2 0.5
27 Lindy Waters III DET 1.9 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.