NBA games

SA @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
124–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29313430124
MIN37314132141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home MIN
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 27 22 2 3
Stephon Castle 28 20 7 4
Harrison Barnes S 22 15 2 1
Keldon Johnson 25 13 4 2
Devin Vassell S 33 13 4 2
Bismack Biyombo S 18 10 4 0
Sandro Mamukelashvili 14 8 3 2
Chris Paul S 25 7 1 7
Jeremy Sochan 18 5 3 0
Jordan McLaughlin 6 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 30 25 3 3
Naz Reid 27 20 7 4
Donte DiVincenzo 27 17 2 3
Rudy Gobert S 20 16 8 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 16 4 7
Julius Randle S 30 14 7 10
Mike Conley S 23 13 5 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 24 10 2 2
Luka Garza 3 4 1 0
Josh Minott 2 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 7-foot two point shot (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Naz Reid MIN
8%
8 Bismack Biyombo SA
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
41%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
16%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.1 7.3 5.9
2 Jaden McDaniels MIN 21.5 7.8 3.6
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 7.6 5.8
4 De'Aaron Fox SA 20.1 4.9 6.2
5 Naz Reid MIN 19.5 9.9 3.7
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 18.0 4.9 5.2
7 Stephon Castle SA 16.3 4.6 3.5
8 Keldon Johnson SA 14.9 4.7 2.4
9 Devin Vassell SA 14.8 4.4 2.7
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 14.4 10.6 2.0
11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 13.4 3.9 2.9
12 Mike Conley MIN 9.8 2.9 4.7
13 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.7 6.0 2.1
14 Harrison Barnes SA 9.4 3.0 1.7
15 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.4 3.5 1.5
16 Chris Paul SA 9.2 2.5 5.9
17 Julian Champagnie SA 7.7 3.0 1.6
18 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.9 6.8 1.3
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.5 1.8 1.1
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 5.3 2.3 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.7 1.4 1.6
22 Luka Garza MIN 3.5 2.0 0.6
23 Blake Wesley SA 2.9 1.3 1.3
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.8 1.4 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.6 1.1 1.0
26 Joe Ingles MIN 2.1 0.8 1.2
27 Josh Minott MIN 1.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.