NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
107–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26313218107
NO27371525104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 37 32 4 6
Desmond Bane S 38 30 9 8
Scotty Pippen Jr. 29 12 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 33 9 7 2
Jay Huff 14 8 4 2
Vince Williams Jr. S 24 7 4 2
Zach Edey S 23 6 12 2
Brandon Clarke 17 2 5 0
Lamar Stevens 4 1 2 0
John Konchar 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 37 27 5 2
Karlo Matkovic 26 13 11 1
Kelly Olynyk S 31 12 4 4
Jordan Hawkins S 24 12 5 0
Antonio Reeves 22 11 2 3
Jose Alvarado S 32 11 0 11
Yves Missi S 28 10 9 0
Bruce Brown 20 5 1 2
Jamal Cain 11 3 1 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Hawkins · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jordan Hawkins makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
17%
2 Ja Morant MEM
16%
3 Yves Missi NO
13%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
5 CJ McCollum NO
11%
6 Zach Edey MEM
11%
7 Kelly Olynyk NO
10%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
10 Brandon Clarke MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
37%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 25.3 4.7 7.6
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.7 7.7 6.5
3 Trey Murphy III NO 20.9 5.4 5.4
4 CJ McCollum NO 20.1 4.2 4.7
5 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.2 3.9 2.1
6 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.6 7.2 3.5
7 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.6 3.7 1.8
8 Jose Alvarado NO 10.6 3.7 4.9
9 Karlo Matkovic NO 10.3 5.9 1.6
10 Yves Missi NO 10.2 7.4 1.3
11 Brandon Clarke MEM 10.0 6.8 1.5
12 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.7 3.8 1.9
13 Zach Edey MEM 8.6 8.5 1.0
14 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.6 2.8 3.0
15 GG Jackson MEM 6.3 3.2 1.5
16 Bruce Brown NO 6.3 3.5 1.9
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.9 2.7 0.8
18 Marvin Bagley III MEM 5.2 3.5 0.8
19 Cam Spencer MEM 4.0 1.8 1.3
20 Antonio Reeves NO 3.6 1.1 0.8
21 Lamar Stevens MEM 3.4 2.8 0.7
22 Jamal Cain NO 3.2 1.7 0.9
23 John Konchar MEM 2.6 1.8 0.6
24 Jay Huff MEM 2.2 1.4 0.6
25 Keion Brooks Jr. NO 1.9 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.