NBA games

CLE @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
112100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE34282228112
MIL32202523100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Strus S 22 17 9 2
Donovan Mitchell S 30 15 5 6
Darius Garland S 29 13 5 5
Evan Mobley S 28 13 7 2
Jarrett Allen S 30 11 6 3
Ty Jerome 18 9 1 1
Sam Merrill 20 9 2 1
Dean Wade 15 9 3 1
De'Andre Hunter 19 6 3 2
Isaac Okoro 16 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 30 9 3
Damian Lillard S 35 22 5 4
Kyle Kuzma S 32 14 6 1
Ryan Rollins 3 10 1 0
Brook Lopez S 30 7 9 0
Taurean Prince S 30 6 2 3
Gary Trent Jr. 20 5 1 0
Chris Livingston 3 2 0 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 10 2 2 2
AJ Green 20 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Max Strus · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Max Strus makes 23-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
10 Ryan Rollins MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
38%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.4 11.5 6.0
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.3 4.2 4.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 20.8 3.9 4.9
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.1 10.3 3.6
5 Darius Garland CLE 15.9 2.6 5.9
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 15.5 7.2 2.6
7 Ty Jerome CLE 15.1 3.6 3.2
8 De'Andre Hunter CLE 14.1 4.6 1.6
9 Brook Lopez MIL 13.6 6.2 1.9
10 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.3 10.1 1.7
11 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.3 3.1 1.7
12 Taurean Prince MIL 9.8 3.9 2.0
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 9.6 3.1 3.6
14 Max Strus CLE 9.4 3.5 2.9
15 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.4 1.8
16 Sam Merrill CLE 6.2 2.3 1.0
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.7 2.8 0.9
18 Dean Wade CLE 4.7 3.4 1.4
19 Javonte Green CLE 4.7 3.1 0.9
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.3 1.5 1.4
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 4.2 1.8 0.9
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.0 1.8 0.9
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.8 1.6 1.7
24 Jericho Sims MIL 3.8 3.7 0.7
25 Tyler Smith MIL 2.8 1.4 0.6
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.0 1.7 0.5
27 Tristan Thompson CLE 1.6 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.