NBA games

PHX @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
125–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX32283728125
DAL24303230116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DAL
80% 20%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 24 3 6
Kevin Durant S 38 21 9 8
Bradley Beal S 29 19 3 6
Grayson Allen 23 17 1 4
Nick Richards S 19 14 9 0
Mason Plumlee 20 13 5 1
Bol Bol S 17 6 5 1
Royce O'Neale 29 6 8 3
Collin Gillespie 3 3 0 0
Tyus Jones 23 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naji Marshall S 41 34 9 10
Klay Thompson S 32 26 5 4
Brandon Williams S 24 13 5 5
Max Christie S 37 12 3 2
Dante Exum 22 12 2 2
Kessler Edwards S 31 10 3 2
Spencer Dinwiddie 29 4 1 2
Caleb Martin 18 3 1 2
Dwight Powell 6 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Brandon Williams makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
11%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
3 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Nick Richards PHX
10%
6 Naji Marshall DAL
10%
7 Max Christie DAL
8%
8 Kessler Edwards DAL
7%
9 Bol Bol PHX
7%
10 Dante Exum DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
52%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.2 4.3 8.4
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.2 6.2 4.5
3 Bradley Beal PHX 21.0 4.5 5.3
4 P.J. Washington DAL 17.3 8.9 3.2
5 Klay Thompson DAL 15.7 4.1 2.3
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.2 8.3 3.8
7 Max Christie DAL 12.5 3.8 3.8
8 Nick Richards PHX 12.1 9.6 1.1
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 3.1 2.8
10 Bol Bol PHX 10.7 4.9 1.2
11 Caleb Martin DAL 10.3 4.2 2.3
12 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 10.2 2.6 4.1
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.0 3.8 2.0
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 9.0 2.4 3.4
15 Brandon Williams DAL 8.6 2.2 3.2
16 Dante Exum DAL 8.3 2.3 3.2
17 Tyus Jones PHX 8.0 2.7 5.0
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 7.5 6.7 1.8
19 Kessler Edwards DAL 7.4 4.1 2.2
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.1 2.6 1.3
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.4 1.3 1.0
22 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.9 1.7 1.4
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.5 1.0 0.5
24 Dwight Powell DAL 3.4 2.7 1.2
25 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.2 1.7 0.4
26 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.8 1.0 0.9
27 Oso Ighodaro PHX 1.8 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.