NBA games

DEN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
103–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN29312320103
OKC28332541127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home OKC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 41 24 13 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 38 24 15 0
Christian Braun S 32 19 3 2
Jamal Murray S 42 17 2 4
Jalen Pickett 16 7 1 2
Aaron Gordon S 7 5 2 0
Russell Westbrook 31 4 11 5
Zeke Nnaji 22 3 1 0
Hunter Tyson 1 0 0 0
Peyton Watson 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 40 8 5
Jalen Williams S 38 26 9 8
Chet Holmgren S 26 14 8 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 10 11 1
Jaylin Williams 10 9 5 1
Alex Caruso 17 8 2 2
Luguentz Dort S 30 6 6 3
Cason Wallace 17 5 0 1
Isaiah Joe 13 5 0 2
Aaron Wiggins 18 4 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Aaron Gordon · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Aaron Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
3 Christian Braun DEN
7%
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
7%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
7%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
6%
9 Chet Holmgren OKC
6%
10 Jamal Murray DEN
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.2 4.7 6.5
2 Jamal Murray DEN 25.0 3.5 6.4
3 Jalen Williams OKC 22.5 4.8 6.2
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 22.4 12.3 10.3
5 Christian Braun DEN 18.7 5.8 3.5
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.3 8.4 2.4
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 15.8 4.1 2.4
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.3 4.7 4.2
9 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.9 4.9 4.7
10 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.4 7.4 1.7
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.0 8.6 3.5
12 Cason Wallace OKC 10.1 3.1 2.6
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.9 3.2 1.7
14 Alex Caruso OKC 8.4 2.9 2.6
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.8 2.9 1.7
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.2 3.2 0.9
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.3 2.5 1.5
18 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 3.4 1.5
19 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.8 1.2
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.6 4.5 2.4
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.2 1.7 1.9
22 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 3.1 1.5
23 Vlatko Cancar DEN 3.9 2.0 0.9
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.7 4.9 0.6
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.1 1.2 0.4
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.4 0.7 0.3
27 Trey Alexander DEN 1.3 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.