NBA games

DET @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET20343323110
GS22293331115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home GS
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 31 4 5
Malik Beasley 28 17 2 1
Tobias Harris S 36 15 12 2
Jalen Duren S 29 13 13 2
Dennis Schroder 25 11 0 4
Isaiah Stewart 17 7 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 6 2 2
Ausar Thompson S 18 6 5 0
Ronald Holland II 11 4 1 0
Simone Fontecchio 10 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 32 3 4
Jimmy Butler III S 37 26 9 5
Gui Santos 25 15 6 1
Moses Moody S 36 12 7 3
Draymond Green S 31 12 9 7
Buddy Hield 19 8 4 2
Quinten Post S 20 6 2 1
Kevon Looney 11 2 4 1
Gary Payton II 22 2 2 1
Pat Spencer 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Quinten Post · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Quinten Post makes 7-foot two point shot (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
5 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
6 Jalen Duren DET
9%
7 Draymond Green GS
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
9%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Stephen Curry GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 24.6 4.9 8.2
2 Stephen Curry GS 23.4 4.3 6.0
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 17.2 5.3 5.6
4 Tobias Harris DET 17.0 5.5 2.0
5 Malik Beasley DET 14.3 2.7 1.6
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.3 10.3 3.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 5.3 3.3
8 Draymond Green GS 13.2 7.2 6.4
9 Ausar Thompson DET 13.0 5.3 3.4
10 Moses Moody GS 11.2 3.5 1.3
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.2 2.9 1.8
12 Dennis Schroder DET 8.8 2.9 4.2
13 Buddy Hield GS 8.4 2.7 1.5
14 Gary Payton II GS 7.8 2.8 1.4
15 Quinten Post GS 7.7 4.0 1.2
16 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.5 4.9 1.4
17 Ronald Holland II DET 5.4 2.3 1.0
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.3 3.4 1.1
19 Gui Santos GS 5.3 3.3 2.0
20 Kevon Looney GS 4.6 5.0 1.0
21 Marcus Sasser DET 3.8 0.9 2.1
22 Pat Spencer GS 3.2 1.6 0.7
23 Paul Reed DET 3.1 3.2 0.6
24 Kevin Knox II GS 3.1 1.4 0.4
25 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.0 1.3 0.4
26 Lindy Waters III DET 1.7 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.