NBA games

LAL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
101–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL33211334101
BOS33252924111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home BOS
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 37 34 8 3
LeBron James S 35 22 14 9
Austin Reaves S 39 16 3 2
Dalton Knecht 24 9 5 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 36 8 4 0
Jordan Goodwin 16 6 3 0
Jarred Vanderbilt S 29 4 8 2
Gabe Vincent 19 2 0 1
Trey Jemison III 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 45 40 12 8
Jaylen Brown S 42 31 6 2
Al Horford S 37 14 9 4
Derrick White S 36 10 5 7
Jrue Holiday S 35 7 5 1
Luke Kornet 11 6 4 0
Payton Pritchard 23 3 2 2
Sam Hauser 12 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 27-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 Luka Doncic LAL
10%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
7 Neemias Queta BOS
7%
8 Luke Kornet BOS
6%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
6%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
23%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.6 10.0 6.5
2 Luka Doncic LAL 25.3 8.0 8.0
3 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.0 8.5 6.5
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.4 4.9 4.2
5 Austin Reaves LAL 21.1 4.5 4.9
6 Derrick White BOS 18.4 4.4 4.9
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.3 5.8 2.7
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.8 4.3 3.4
9 Al Horford BOS 9.5 6.6 1.5
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 8.2 3.0 2.7
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.2 4.3 1.3
12 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.4 1.1
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.4 2.4 0.9
14 Luke Kornet BOS 6.4 5.5 2.2
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.3 1.9 1.6
16 Torrey Craig BOS 5.4 2.6 0.7
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.0 4.3 0.9
18 Shake Milton LAL 5.0 2.1 1.5
19 Neemias Queta BOS 4.6 3.8 0.8
20 Jordan Goodwin LAL 4.1 3.1 0.7
21 Trey Jemison III LAL 3.9 3.0 0.5
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.9 2.1 0.8
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.2 1.6 0.8
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.7 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.2 1.1 0.5
26 Markieff Morris LAL 2.0 0.8 0.5
27 Alex Len LAL 2.0 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.