NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL34263021111
MIL20272933109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 29 6 2
Cole Anthony S 31 22 4 9
Franz Wagner S 38 18 7 5
Anthony Black 18 11 2 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 9 3 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 7 4 0
Tristan da Silva 11 5 3 1
Jonathan Isaac 9 4 1 0
Caleb Houstan 6 3 0 0
Goga Bitadze 9 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 37 11 4
Damian Lillard S 36 26 7 4
Taurean Prince S 40 13 4 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 23 12 2 2
Kyle Kuzma S 39 11 8 0
Brook Lopez S 27 8 2 0
Jericho Sims 13 2 2 0
AJ Green 28 0 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
11%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
26%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.3 11.9 6.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 27.7 6.8 5.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 24.2 5.2 4.1
4 Damian Lillard MIL 21.9 4.0 5.0
5 Kyle Kuzma MIL 16.9 7.1 2.5
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.4 6.4 2.1
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.3 4.1 3.2
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.8 8.5 1.9
9 Taurean Prince MIL 9.4 3.8 1.8
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.0 2.8 1.5
11 AJ Green MIL 8.7 2.4 1.4
12 Anthony Black ORL 8.4 3.8 2.1
13 Kevin Porter Jr. MIL 8.4 3.1 3.5
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 5.0 1.9 1.1
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.9 4.7 1.2
16 Jett Howard ORL 4.7 1.6 1.3
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.8 1.7 0.7
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 1.8 0.9
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.5 3.9 0.6
20 Cory Joseph ORL 3.4 1.3 0.8
21 Jericho Sims MIL 3.2 3.5 0.7
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 2.9 1.6 0.5
23 Tyler Smith MIL 2.6 1.4 0.6
24 Gary Harris ORL 2.1 1.1 0.5
25 Chris Livingston MIL 2.0 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.