ORL @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
111–109
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORL | 34 | 26 | 30 | 21 | 111 |
| MIL | 20 | 27 | 29 | 33 | 109 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL
away
home
MIL
50%
50%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paolo Banchero S | 37 | 29 | 6 | 2 |
| Cole Anthony S | 31 | 22 | 4 | 9 |
| Franz Wagner S | 38 | 18 | 7 | 5 |
| Anthony Black | 18 | 11 | 2 | 0 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S | 37 | 9 | 3 | 1 |
| Wendell Carter Jr. S | 31 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tristan da Silva | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| Jonathan Isaac | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Caleb Houstan | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Goga Bitadze | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo ·
Layup (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Paolo Banchero
ORL
14%
2
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
13%
3
Franz Wagner
ORL
12%
4
Kyle Kuzma
MIL
11%
5
Brook Lopez
MIL
10%
6
Damian Lillard
MIL
9%
7
Wendell Carter Jr.
ORL
8%
8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
ORL
8%
9
Cole Anthony
ORL
7%
10
Taurean Prince
MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
26%
Layup
10%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 28.3 | 11.9 | 6.4 |
| 2 | Paolo Banchero | ORL | 27.7 | 6.8 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Franz Wagner | ORL | 24.2 | 5.2 | 4.1 |
| 4 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 21.9 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| 5 | Kyle Kuzma | MIL | 16.9 | 7.1 | 2.5 |
| 6 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.1 |
| 7 | Cole Anthony | ORL | 12.3 | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| 8 | Wendell Carter Jr. | ORL | 10.8 | 8.5 | 1.9 |
| 9 | Taurean Prince | MIL | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 |
| 10 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | ORL | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.5 |
| 11 | AJ Green | MIL | 8.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 12 | Anthony Black | ORL | 8.4 | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| 13 | Kevin Porter Jr. | MIL | 8.4 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| 14 | Tristan da Silva | ORL | 5.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 15 | Goga Bitadze | ORL | 4.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 |
| 16 | Jett Howard | ORL | 4.7 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| 17 | Caleb Houstan | ORL | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 18 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 19 | Jonathan Isaac | ORL | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| 20 | Cory Joseph | ORL | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Jericho Sims | MIL | 3.2 | 3.5 | 0.7 |
| 22 | Trevelin Queen | ORL | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Tyler Smith | MIL | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 24 | Gary Harris | ORL | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 25 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.