NBA games

CHI @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
114–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI24243036114
MIA36193420109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIA
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 37 26 10 12
Coby White S 33 21 3 3
Zach Collins S 32 18 15 3
Tre Jones S 33 15 5 5
Matas Buzelis S 32 13 5 1
Kevin Huerter 30 11 3 0
Jalen Smith 16 7 4 1
Dalen Terry 8 3 1 0
Julian Phillips 13 0 3 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 6 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 28 22 3 1
Bam Adebayo S 38 22 6 2
Tyler Herro S 37 21 8 6
Terry Rozier 27 15 4 0
Duncan Robinson 22 12 1 4
Kel'el Ware S 27 7 12 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 11 4 4 2
Davion Mitchell S 30 4 3 8
Haywood Highsmith 21 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes layup (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
10%
3 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
7 Tre Jones CHI
7%
8 Matas Buzelis CHI
7%
9 Davion Mitchell MIA
6%
10 Zach Collins CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 4.5 6.8
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.2 10.1 4.2
3 Josh Giddey CHI 20.2 8.8 6.8
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 20.1 4.3 3.7
5 Coby White CHI 20.0 4.0 4.4
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.4 3.4 3.1
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 12.4 4.2 2.2
8 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.7 2.7 5.4
9 Zach Collins CHI 11.3 6.7 2.1
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.8 9.9 1.5
11 Terry Rozier MIA 9.6 2.9 2.0
12 Tre Jones CHI 9.4 2.8 2.8
13 Kevin Huerter CHI 8.8 2.6 2.2
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.3 3.4 2.0
15 Alec Burks MIA 7.8 3.7 1.5
16 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.1 1.3
17 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.1 3.5 1.7
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.4 2.4 0.7
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.3 1.7 1.4
20 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.3 3.6 2.0
21 Dalen Terry CHI 5.0 1.7 1.1
22 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.7 1.9 1.0
23 Kevin Love MIA 4.6 3.5 0.9
24 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.5 1.5 2.7
25 Jevon Carter CHI 3.3 1.1 1.1
26 Jahmir Young CHI 3.1 1.0 1.2
27 Emanuel Miller CHI 2.8 1.2 0.3
28 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 2.1 0.7
29 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.4 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.