NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
118–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH33362623118
TOR39262428117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 31 34 2 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 18 10 4
Khris Middleton S 24 12 3 2
Corey Kispert 27 12 1 1
Richaun Holmes 20 10 11 4
Alex Sarr S 28 10 14 3
Marcus Smart 18 9 1 4
Bub Carrington 21 8 2 3
Kyshawn George S 31 5 6 3
Justin Champagnie 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 28 23 9 3
Jakob Poeltl S 24 21 5 5
Scottie Barnes S 27 18 2 4
Jared Rhoden 29 13 4 0
Jamal Shead S 29 11 5 9
Jamison Battle 21 11 8 0
Orlando Robinson 24 7 7 1
A.J. Lawson S 32 7 3 2
Colin Castleton 26 6 6 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes dunk (Kyshawn George assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
8%
6 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
8 Orlando Robinson TOR
7%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
20%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 23.7 6.0 6.2
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.6 3.8 4.7
3 Immanuel Quickley TOR 21.9 4.2 5.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.1 8.8 5.6
5 Khris Middleton WSH 14.1 4.0 3.7
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.0 8.3 3.3
7 Bub Carrington WSH 12.9 4.6 4.6
8 Kyshawn George WSH 12.7 5.9 3.5
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.7 4.4 3.0
10 Corey Kispert WSH 12.2 3.3 2.0
11 Alex Sarr WSH 11.5 5.7 2.0
12 Richaun Holmes WSH 11.4 7.6 1.6
13 Marcus Smart WSH 7.6 1.8 2.1
14 Orlando Robinson TOR 7.6 4.9 2.0
15 Jamal Shead TOR 7.5 2.1 4.1
16 Jaylen Nowell WSH 7.2 2.5 1.7
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 6.6 4.5 1.0
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 6.3 3.4 1.1
19 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 3.7 0.8
20 Jamison Battle TOR 4.5 1.9 0.7
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.1 1.8 0.7
22 Jared Rhoden TOR 3.7 2.0 0.8
23 Colin Castleton TOR 2.8 1.9 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.5 0.8
25 Anthony Gill WSH 1.4 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.