NBA games

IND @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND19333630118
ATL39302625120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ATL
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bennedict Mathurin 40 30 8 5
Pascal Siakam S 34 23 7 3
Myles Turner S 34 14 6 2
Aaron Nesmith S 34 14 1 2
Andrew Nembhard S 31 11 5 12
Thomas Bryant 14 10 5 1
Obi Toppin 18 9 3 1
Ben Sheppard S 19 5 4 0
Quenton Jackson 13 2 2 3
Jarace Walker 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 33 36 4 8
Caris LeVert 33 26 3 1
Onyeka Okongwu S 32 16 16 2
Dyson Daniels S 35 10 6 4
Clint Capela 16 8 9 1
Mouhamed Gueye S 22 6 0 2
Terance Mann 19 6 5 4
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 6 1 0
Georges Niang 25 6 4 1
Keaton Wallace 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Layup (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Myles Turner makes layup (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
6 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Jarace Walker IND
7%
9 Myles Turner IND
7%
10 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
27%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 21.7 3.2 10.6
2 Pascal Siakam IND 18.4 5.9 2.6
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.7 6.3 5.1
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 16.9 10.1 3.0
5 Caris LeVert ATL 16.9 4.3 3.1
6 Myles Turner IND 15.3 5.1 2.1
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.2 3.7 2.0
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 13.8 4.4 1.8
9 Georges Niang ATL 13.8 4.5 2.0
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.8 4.4 2.1
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.2 3.1 5.3
12 Obi Toppin IND 9.8 3.8 1.8
13 Terance Mann ATL 9.2 3.1 2.2
14 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.0 4.9
15 Thomas Bryant IND 8.3 4.6 1.5
16 Clint Capela ATL 6.6 6.5 1.0
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.5 1.6 2.3
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.4 3.0 1.3
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.2 3.7 0.9
20 Quenton Jackson IND 4.9 1.8 1.5
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.2 2.2 0.6
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 3.4 2.2 0.4
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.0 1.8 1.0
24 Enrique Freeman IND 2.6 1.5 0.6
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.6 1.1 0.3
26 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.