NO @ HOU
NBA
Toyota Center (Houston)
·Final
117–146
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 28 | 30 | 25 | 34 | 117 |
| HOU | 39 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 146 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
HOU
28%
72%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zion Williamson S | 28 | 20 | 2 | 3 |
| CJ McCollum S | 28 | 17 | 5 | 2 |
| Jose Alvarado | 23 | 17 | 4 | 7 |
| Yves Missi S | 28 | 14 | 6 | 4 |
| Trey Murphy III S | 31 | 13 | 5 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 28 | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 23 | 11 | 7 | 1 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 21 | 7 | 4 | 1 |
| Jamal Cain | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Kelly Olynyk S | 22 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Tari Eason ·
Layup (2 pts) · 10:50 Q1
"Tari Eason makes 6-foot two point shot (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Alperen Sengun
HOU
12%
2
CJ McCollum
NO
11%
3
Amen Thompson
HOU
10%
4
Zion Williamson
NO
9%
5
Yves Missi
NO
9%
6
Trey Murphy III
NO
9%
7
Tari Eason
HOU
8%
8
Jalen Green
HOU
8%
9
Dillon Brooks
HOU
7%
10
Jock Landale
HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
34%
Layup
32%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zion Williamson | NO | 27.4 | 7.2 | 5.2 |
| 2 | Jalen Green | HOU | 22.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| 3 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | 21.4 | 10.8 | 5.7 |
| 4 | CJ McCollum | NO | 20.7 | 4.3 | 4.3 |
| 5 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 20.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| 6 | Amen Thompson | HOU | 16.3 | 9.8 | 5.0 |
| 7 | Tari Eason | HOU | 15.7 | 6.6 | 2.6 |
| 8 | Dillon Brooks | HOU | 13.4 | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| 9 | Fred VanVleet | HOU | 12.5 | 3.1 | 5.0 |
| 10 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 11.9 | 6.0 | 1.3 |
| 11 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 11.4 | 3.6 | 1.8 |
| 12 | Kelly Olynyk | NO | 11.1 | 6.5 | 2.8 |
| 13 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 10.1 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| 14 | Yves Missi | NO | 9.5 | 7.5 | 0.9 |
| 15 | Karlo Matkovic | NO | 8.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 |
| 16 | Jeff Green | HOU | 8.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 17 | Cam Whitmore | HOU | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 18 | Aaron Holiday | HOU | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| 19 | Bruce Brown | NO | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 |
| 20 | Reed Sheppard | HOU | 5.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| 21 | Jock Landale | HOU | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Steven Adams | HOU | 4.5 | 5.3 | 1.4 |
| 23 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| 24 | Nate Williams | HOU | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| 25 | Jae'Sean Tate | HOU | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 26 | Jamal Cain | NO | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.