NBA games

BKN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
102–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN28302420102
CHA26173329105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHA
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 29 28 6 7
Ziaire Williams S 32 19 3 1
Cam Thomas S 29 16 2 3
Trendon Watford 21 12 4 2
Nic Claxton S 29 8 6 2
Jalen Wilson 19 7 1 0
Tyrese Martin 18 7 5 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 4 3 1
Keon Johnson S 25 1 3 2
Noah Clowney 18 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 35 26 12 5
Nick Smith Jr. S 32 19 2 2
Moussa Diabate S 37 16 15 2
Damion Baugh S 29 14 2 4
Tidjane Salaun 19 9 3 2
Malachi Flynn 19 9 5 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 11 5 5 2
Taj Gibson 11 4 2 1
DaQuan Jeffries 21 3 0 1
Josh Green S 25 0 4 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ziaire Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
16%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
3 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
4 Noah Clowney BKN
11%
5 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
10%
6 Keon Johnson BKN
10%
7 Josh Green CHA
10%
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN
9%
9 Grant Williams CHA
9%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 26.1 7.8 4.1
2 Cam Thomas BKN 25.3 4.0 5.0
3 Nic Claxton BKN 13.0 8.8 3.4
4 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 12.9 2.6 2.9
5 Grant Williams CHA 12.8 6.0 2.1
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.5 3.3 4.4
7 Keon Johnson BKN 11.8 4.6 2.7
8 Trendon Watford BKN 11.8 4.2 3.9
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.6 4.4 1.7
10 Noah Clowney BKN 10.4 4.2 1.4
11 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.4 7.9 2.5
12 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.3 3.2 1.8
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 9.3 2.9 1.6
14 Damion Baugh CHA 9.1 2.7 3.9
15 Josh Green CHA 9.0 2.4 2.0
16 Seth Curry CHA 8.0 2.7 1.1
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 7.3 5.1 1.0
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.4 4.1 1.2
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.4 3.1 1.5
20 Taj Gibson CHA 4.5 4.8 0.9
21 Maxwell Lewis BKN 2.4 1.1 0.6
22 Wendell Moore Jr. CHA 2.4 1.0 0.4
23 Malachi Flynn CHA 2.4 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.