NBA games

NY @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
95–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY2529241795
LAC31291926105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAC
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 23 10 2
Mikal Bridges S 43 22 4 5
Josh Hart S 46 14 20 6
OG Anunoby S 37 11 8 1
Precious Achiuwa 16 9 5 2
Miles McBride S 34 7 2 6
Cameron Payne 14 5 2 3
Landry Shamet 17 4 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 36 27 3 7
Kawhi Leonard S 37 20 7 6
Nicolas Batum S 34 17 4 1
Ivica Zubac S 39 16 14 3
Derrick Jones Jr. 18 9 3 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 8 12 3
Amir Coffey 15 6 1 0
Kris Dunn S 29 2 2 3
Drew Eubanks 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 2-foot dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 James Harden LAC
12%
3 Josh Hart NY
12%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
8%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
6%
10 Nicolas Batum LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
30%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 22.9 4.9 8.0
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.3 10.5 2.4
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.6 5.8 3.7
4 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.0 11.8 2.6
5 OG Anunoby NY 17.4 4.3 2.5
6 Josh Hart NY 17.2 9.3 4.8
7 Mikal Bridges NY 13.3 4.1 3.8
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 12.6 2.7 3.4
9 Amir Coffey LAC 11.1 2.8 1.4
10 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.8 7.1 1.3
11 Kris Dunn LAC 9.8 4.4 4.3
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.5 2.8 1.0
13 Miles McBride NY 9.3 3.4 1.7
14 Cameron Payne NY 6.1 1.7 3.0
15 Landry Shamet NY 5.4 1.4 0.9
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 3.7 0.5
17 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.7 2.6 0.8
18 Drew Eubanks LAC 3.5 2.7 0.7
19 Anton Watson NY 2.9 1.3 1.0
20 Jordan Miller LAC 2.7 1.6 0.6
21 Kobe Brown LAC 2.7 1.5 0.7
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.6 0.8 0.6
23 MarJon Beauchamp NY 2.2 1.1 0.5
24 Delon Wright NY 1.8 1.0 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.