NBA games

SA @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
109–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA26163433109
SAC20363932127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home SAC
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle 26 25 2 3
De'Aaron Fox S 33 16 4 8
Harrison Barnes S 26 12 2 0
Keldon Johnson 23 11 4 1
Devin Vassell S 34 10 2 3
Chris Paul S 28 9 4 6
Jeremy Sochan 25 9 8 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 8 7 2 1
Bismack Biyombo S 19 5 4 1
Jordan McLaughlin 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 39 36 4 3
DeMar DeRozan S 38 22 9 7
Keegan Murray S 35 19 9 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 27 15 12 6
Keon Ellis S 33 10 3 4
Devin Carter 14 8 2 2
Trey Lyles 16 6 3 5
Jake LaRavia 27 6 8 3
Skal Labissiere 2 5 0 0
Markelle Fultz 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 16-foot two point shot (Chris Paul assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
12%
2 Zach LaVine SAC
12%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
6 Jonas Valanciunas SAC
10%
7 Bismack Biyombo SA
10%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.8 5.0 5.5
2 Zach LaVine SAC 24.0 4.3 5.4
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 21.2 4.6 6.2
4 Stephon Castle SA 15.7 4.4 3.5
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.3 4.4 2.4
6 Devin Vassell SA 13.8 4.2 2.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.5 5.9 2.1
8 Keon Ellis SAC 10.4 4.0 1.6
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 9.6 5.3 2.3
10 Jonas Valanciunas SAC 9.4 7.5 1.8
11 Harrison Barnes SA 8.8 2.8 1.7
12 Chris Paul SA 8.7 2.3 6.2
13 Julian Champagnie SA 7.4 2.4 1.5
14 Bismack Biyombo SA 6.7 6.2 1.3
15 Jake LaRavia SAC 5.4 2.8 1.4
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.2 3.3 1.5
17 Markelle Fultz SAC 4.8 1.5 1.3
18 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.5 1.6 0.6
19 Jae Crowder SAC 4.1 2.3 0.8
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.4 1.1 0.7
21 Isaac Jones SAC 2.9 1.6 0.6
22 Devin Carter SAC 2.8 1.1 0.8
23 Mason Jones SAC 2.5 1.1 0.9
24 Malaki Branham SA 2.1 0.9 0.5
25 Blake Wesley SA 2.1 0.7 1.4
26 Isaiah Crawford SAC 2.0 1.2 0.4
27 Skal Labissiere SAC 1.9 0.9 0.6
28 Jordan McLaughlin SA 1.5 0.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.