NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
141–149
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
PHX2828353416141
DEN3731342324149

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 44 34 6 7
Kevin Durant S 46 29 9 5
Mason Plumlee 27 18 11 0
Nick Richards S 26 18 5 0
Bradley Beal S 41 11 1 9
Grayson Allen 29 11 0 4
Royce O'Neale 20 6 1 5
Tyus Jones 14 6 1 5
Bol Bol S 14 5 5 1
Collin Gillespie 5 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 45 31 21 22
Aaron Gordon S 39 27 3 1
Christian Braun S 38 25 5 5
Jamal Murray S 42 19 1 8
Michael Porter Jr. S 39 16 2 3
Russell Westbrook 26 14 3 4
Peyton Watson 24 11 2 2
Zeke Nnaji 13 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
11%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
11%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
6 Nick Richards PHX
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
9 Bol Bol PHX
7%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
18%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 25.7 3.5 6.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 23.8 4.0 7.6
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.2 4.4 4.5
4 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.9 12.1 11.2
5 Kevin Durant PHX 21.4 5.7 4.1
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.9 8.9 2.6
7 Christian Braun DEN 19.3 5.9 3.7
8 Russell Westbrook DEN 14.1 4.6 5.2
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.6 4.5 4.4
10 Bol Bol PHX 11.4 5.6 1.4
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.0 2.9 2.6
12 Nick Richards PHX 9.7 8.4 1.1
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 3.7 1.9
14 Vasilije Micic PHX 8.7 2.3 3.3
15 Tyus Jones PHX 8.3 2.5 5.0
16 Zeke Nnaji DEN 7.1 3.4 1.1
17 Peyton Watson DEN 6.0 3.3 1.5
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 5.5 1.8
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.8 1.8 2.1
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.6 3.1 1.6
21 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.1 1.4 1.3
22 Vlatko Cancar DEN 4.1 2.0 1.1
23 Damion Lee PHX 3.3 0.9 0.4
24 Ryan Dunn PHX 3.0 1.7 0.4
25 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.9 4.9 0.7
26 TyTy Washington Jr. PHX 2.5 1.0 0.8
27 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.4 1.2 0.5
28 Spencer Jones DEN 1.7 0.7 0.4
29 Oso Ighodaro PHX 1.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.