NBA games

POR @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
89–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2421281689
OKC29341727107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home OKC
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scoot Henderson 25 22 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 36 19 3 2
Anfernee Simons S 36 14 5 5
Donovan Clingan S 22 8 12 1
Duop Reath 21 8 3 2
Toumani Camara S 34 7 10 2
Jabari Walker 22 5 9 0
Jerami Grant S 24 4 5 0
Kris Murray 15 2 1 0
Justin Minaya 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Aaron Wiggins S 32 30 5 3
Alex Caruso 24 17 1 1
Ousmane Dieng S 36 16 6 1
Isaiah Joe S 34 16 6 6
Kenrich Williams S 32 10 6 1
Jaylin Williams S 36 10 11 11
Dillon Jones 25 6 4 1
Branden Carlson 14 2 3 1
Adam Flagler 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylin Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jaylin Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
16%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
12%
5 Toumani Camara POR
11%
6 Donovan Clingan POR
10%
7 Jerami Grant POR
9%
8 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Scoot Henderson POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 23.1 3.3 5.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.9 4.9 6.0
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.4 5.0 4.0
4 Deni Avdija POR 18.0 6.3 4.9
5 Toumani Camara POR 14.6 5.9 3.1
6 Aaron Wiggins OKC 13.8 4.1 2.2
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.6 3.0 5.0
8 Chet Holmgren OKC 13.4 7.6 1.7
9 Jerami Grant POR 12.6 3.5 2.3
10 Cason Wallace OKC 10.4 3.3 2.5
11 Donovan Clingan POR 9.4 9.0 1.5
12 Jabari Walker POR 8.3 4.5 1.3
13 Alex Caruso OKC 7.7 2.9 2.7
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.6 2.6 1.3
15 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.0 2.6 1.4
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.4 1.4
17 Kris Murray POR 5.4 3.1 1.0
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.7 4.2 1.6
19 Duop Reath POR 4.2 2.2 0.7
20 Adam Flagler OKC 3.2 1.2 0.6
21 Branden Carlson OKC 3.1 1.3 0.4
22 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.1 0.6
23 Dillon Jones OKC 2.5 1.7 1.3
24 Sidy Cissoko POR 2.0 0.8 0.3
25 Bryce McGowens POR 1.7 0.7 0.3
26 Rayan Rupert POR 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.