NBA games

MIN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
106–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN33192826106
MIA25272824104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home MIA
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo 31 15 6 4
Mike Conley S 25 15 2 2
Naz Reid S 34 15 4 3
Julius Randle S 34 13 10 9
Jaden McDaniels S 35 13 6 4
Anthony Edwards S 39 13 13 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 12 2 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 8 6 0 0
Jaylen Clark 12 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 43 29 13 4
Tyler Herro S 39 22 6 7
Duncan Robinson 28 15 4 1
Haywood Highsmith 31 9 5 4
Davion Mitchell S 38 7 4 10
Kevin Love S 10 6 2 1
Terry Rozier 12 5 2 0
Pelle Larsson S 18 5 4 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 10 4 1 0
Kyle Anderson 9 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pelle Larsson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Pelle Larsson makes layup (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
11%
2 Naz Reid MIN
9%
3 Andrew Wiggins MIA
8%
4 Julius Randle MIN
8%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
6 Bam Adebayo MIA
7%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
7%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
9 Terry Rozier MIA
6%
10 Anthony Edwards MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
31%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.3 6.3 5.5
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.8 10.3 3.9
3 Tyler Herro MIA 23.8 4.5 6.3
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 19.6 4.6 3.5
5 Julius Randle MIN 19.2 7.5 5.5
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.9 7.5 3.4
7 Naz Reid MIN 18.9 9.6 3.4
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.5 4.2 5.1
9 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.4 3.2 3.1
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.2 3.7 3.1
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.3 2.7 4.5
12 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.7 10.0 1.5
13 Terry Rozier MIA 10.2 3.0 2.2
14 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 9.2 3.5 1.7
15 Mike Conley MIN 8.3 2.5 4.7
16 Alec Burks MIA 8.1 3.9 1.5
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.3 1.8
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 5.4 3.2 1.3
19 Kyle Anderson MIA 5.2 3.6 1.9
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 1.5 0.9
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.2 1.9 1.0
22 Kevin Love MIA 4.1 3.2 0.7
23 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.0 1.5 1.7
24 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.6 1.6 2.5
25 Luka Garza MIN 3.4 2.0 0.6
26 Jesse Edwards MIN 3.4 1.6 0.7
27 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 2.1 0.6
28 Leonard Miller MIN 2.1 1.1 0.4
29 Josh Minott MIN 1.8 1.1 0.5
30 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.7 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.