NBA games

MEM @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
122–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM22283933122
DAL31224117111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home DAL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 35 31 4 8
Desmond Bane S 38 27 16 6
Brandon Clarke 26 17 8 2
Vince Williams Jr. 24 12 4 1
Zach Edey S 22 8 12 0
Luke Kennard 26 7 1 3
Santi Aldama S 21 6 5 3
Jaylen Wells S 21 5 5 1
GG Jackson 13 5 2 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 14 4 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Williams 34 31 5 6
Naji Marshall S 40 29 17 2
Klay Thompson S 29 15 4 1
Kessler Edwards S 29 13 3 3
Spencer Dinwiddie 32 10 3 4
Max Christie S 34 8 5 3
Dante Exum S 20 3 2 1
Caleb Martin 14 2 4 3
Dwight Powell 8 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Wells · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaylen Wells makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
11%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
9%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
4 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
5 Zach Edey MEM
7%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
7%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
8 Santi Aldama MEM
7%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
6%
10 Max Christie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
38%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 25.9 4.6 7.4
2 Desmond Bane MEM 23.1 7.0 5.9
3 P.J. Washington DAL 17.8 9.1 3.3
4 Klay Thompson DAL 15.4 4.0 2.3
5 Naji Marshall DAL 13.7 7.2 4.0
6 Santi Aldama MEM 13.2 6.1 3.7
7 Max Christie DAL 13.2 3.9 3.9
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.0 3.4 1.8
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 11.0 2.6 4.3
10 Caleb Martin DAL 10.9 4.3 2.1
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.1 3.0 3.6
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 9.0 6.4 1.4
13 Dante Exum DAL 9.0 2.0 3.5
14 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.1 3.7 1.7
15 Zach Edey MEM 7.6 7.6 1.0
16 GG Jackson MEM 7.1 2.8 1.5
17 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.6 2.8 2.4
18 Kessler Edwards DAL 6.5 3.8 1.8
19 Brandon Williams DAL 6.4 1.9 2.5
20 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.4 2.8 1.4
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.0 1.5 1.3
22 Marvin Bagley III MEM 5.7 3.6 0.8
23 Cam Spencer MEM 4.6 1.9 1.4
24 Lamar Stevens MEM 4.0 2.8 0.7
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.5 3.0 1.2
26 John Konchar MEM 2.9 1.7 0.7
27 Jay Huff MEM 2.7 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.