NBA games

CLE @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
118–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE27362431118
CHA27253134117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home CHA
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 36 24 3 1
Darius Garland S 31 20 1 2
Evan Mobley S 34 19 10 4
De'Andre Hunter 25 15 6 4
Jarrett Allen S 32 14 11 0
Sam Merrill 19 12 1 0
Ty Jerome 17 6 5 3
Isaac Okoro 13 5 2 0
Max Strus S 22 3 3 1
Dean Wade 11 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 39 46 8 2
LaMelo Ball S 23 13 1 7
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 12 15 5
Nick Smith Jr. 25 9 2 2
Tidjane Salaun 18 9 6 3
Damion Baugh 26 6 1 4
Moussa Diabate 11 6 3 2
DaQuan Jeffries S 22 6 2 1
Seth Curry 14 5 2 1
Josh Green S 30 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes driving layup (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
18%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
10%
5 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 DaQuan Jeffries CHA
8%
8 Josh Green CHA
8%
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
29%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 23.8 7.5 4.1
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.9 4.5 5.1
3 Evan Mobley CLE 20.7 11.0 4.1
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.2 4.7 5.5
5 Darius Garland CLE 17.7 3.1 6.8
6 Ty Jerome CLE 16.6 3.9 3.5
7 De'Andre Hunter CLE 15.1 4.3 1.6
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.5 11.3 2.1
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 11.3 2.5 2.8
10 Max Strus CLE 11.0 3.8 3.4
11 Josh Green CHA 8.6 2.0 1.8
12 Damion Baugh CHA 8.6 2.8 3.7
13 Seth Curry CHA 7.8 2.8 1.1
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.9 2.8 1.2
15 Jusuf Nurkic CHA 6.9 6.3 3.1
16 Moussa Diabate CHA 6.7 4.7 0.8
17 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.2 2.9 1.1
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.2 4.0 1.2
19 Dean Wade CLE 6.1 3.6 1.6
20 Javonte Green CLE 6.0 3.6 1.4
21 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.9 3.2 1.5
22 Jaylon Tyson CLE 5.6 2.3 1.3
23 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.2 2.2 2.2
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.9 2.8 0.9
25 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 4.1 0.5
26 Malachi Flynn CHA 2.3 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.