NBA games

NY @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
109–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
NY2733241510109
LAL3120252314113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home LAL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 41 39 4 10
OG Anunoby S 44 20 4 1
Josh Hart S 44 18 10 2
Karl-Anthony Towns S 42 12 14 1
Mitchell Robinson 13 6 4 0
Mikal Bridges S 43 6 3 3
Landry Shamet 6 5 0 0
Cameron Payne 10 3 2 1
Miles McBride 21 0 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 43 32 7 12
LeBron James S 44 31 12 8
Gabe Vincent 24 12 1 1
Dalton Knecht 21 11 4 1
Jaxson Hayes S 34 8 5 3
Austin Reaves S 32 8 6 0
Trey Jemison III 13 7 4 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 17 2 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 38 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Hart NY
12%
2 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
10%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
7 Jaxson Hayes LAL
8%
8 OG Anunoby NY
7%
9 Mitchell Robinson NY
7%
10 Mikal Bridges NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
39%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 28.4 9.6 7.6
2 Luka Doncic LAL 24.5 7.7 7.7
3 Jalen Brunson NY 24.0 3.8 6.5
4 Austin Reaves LAL 23.1 4.3 5.6
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 20.9 10.0 2.3
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.4 4.1 2.9
7 Josh Hart NY 16.9 8.8 5.0
8 Mikal Bridges NY 13.5 3.9 3.8
9 Precious Achiuwa NY 9.6 7.1 1.4
10 Miles McBride NY 9.4 3.0 1.8
11 Jaxson Hayes LAL 8.6 5.6 1.2
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.2 4.2 1.7
13 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.8 1.8 2.2
14 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.5 2.1 0.9
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.2 1.6 3.0
16 Shake Milton LAL 6.0 2.3 1.7
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 5.5 4.2 1.0
18 Landry Shamet NY 5.2 1.2 1.0
19 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.1 3.6 0.6
20 Trey Jemison III LAL 4.1 3.3 0.7
21 Cam Reddish LAL 4.1 2.1 1.0
22 Bronny James LAL 3.4 1.4 0.8
23 Anton Watson NY 2.8 1.3 1.0
24 Alex Len LAL 2.7 1.7 0.7
25 Delon Wright NY 1.7 0.9 1.3
26 Matt Ryan NY 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.