NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
109–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31253320109
NO3425152397

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 22 6 8
Amen Thompson S 39 21 11 2
Tari Eason S 31 20 2 4
Jabari Smith Jr. 28 16 5 1
Dillon Brooks S 36 14 4 1
Jalen Green S 34 9 2 8
Steven Adams 19 3 8 6
Reed Sheppard 12 2 3 3
Jeff Green 5 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 26 5 0
Zion Williamson S 32 20 10 3
CJ McCollum S 34 13 2 2
Yves Missi S 28 10 4 1
Kelly Olynyk S 23 8 5 2
Jose Alvarado 23 7 2 4
Jordan Hawkins 21 7 5 0
Karlo Matkovic 21 6 6 3
Bruce Brown 19 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Yves Missi · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Yves Missi makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 CJ McCollum NO
10%
4 Yves Missi NO
9%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Amen Thompson HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Jalen Green HOU
7%
9 Jock Landale HOU
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk NO
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
34%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 29.0 6.9 5.8
2 Jalen Green HOU 22.3 4.6 4.7
3 CJ McCollum NO 21.9 4.3 4.7
4 Trey Murphy III NO 20.4 5.4 5.8
5 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.1 10.3 4.5
6 Amen Thompson HOU 14.6 9.6 5.4
7 Tari Eason HOU 14.4 7.2 2.4
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.9 4.2 2.6
9 Fred VanVleet HOU 12.5 2.9 5.1
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.6 3.7 2.0
11 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.5 6.0 1.4
12 Kelly Olynyk NO 11.4 6.6 3.1
13 Jose Alvarado NO 10.6 3.6 4.4
14 Karlo Matkovic NO 9.9 5.2 1.4
15 Yves Missi NO 9.8 7.9 1.1
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 8.5 3.2 1.4
17 Jeff Green HOU 7.8 2.3 1.2
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.9 2.4 1.5
19 Bruce Brown NO 6.8 3.7 1.7
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 6.1 2.1 1.3
21 Brandon Boston NO 5.9 2.1 0.8
22 Jock Landale HOU 5.7 3.8 1.2
23 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.0 2.5 0.6
24 Steven Adams HOU 4.8 5.0 1.3
25 Nate Williams HOU 4.2 1.7 0.9
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.8 2.5 1.2
27 Jamal Cain NO 3.0 1.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.