NBA games

GS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
121–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS15403135121
BKN35252930119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home BKN
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 40 4 4
Jimmy Butler III S 35 25 2 6
Gary Payton II 21 16 9 1
Quinten Post 21 10 7 2
Moses Moody S 29 10 5 2
Draymond Green S 34 7 7 10
Gui Santos 24 6 3 3
Kevon Looney 12 5 5 1
Pat Spencer 6 2 2 1
Buddy Hield 23 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 34 26 6 4
Cam Thomas S 27 23 3 7
Tyrese Martin 24 17 2 1
Keon Johnson S 24 12 1 2
Ziaire Williams 25 10 1 1
Jalen Wilson 17 9 3 0
Nic Claxton S 31 8 9 10
D'Angelo Russell S 24 7 0 4
Trendon Watford 17 5 2 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 18 2 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cam Thomas · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cam Thomas BKN
15%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
13%
3 Cameron Johnson BKN
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Ziaire Williams BKN
9%
7 Brandin Podziemski GS
9%
8 Stephen Curry GS
7%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 D'Angelo Russell BKN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
25%
Layup
9%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.2 4.4 6.0
2 Cam Thomas BKN 23.9 3.8 4.1
3 Cameron Johnson BKN 17.8 4.3 3.5
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 16.9 5.5 5.2
5 Brandin Podziemski GS 14.2 6.0 3.4
6 Draymond Green GS 13.3 7.0 6.0
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 12.6 3.3 3.8
8 Nic Claxton BKN 11.9 7.9 2.3
9 Moses Moody GS 11.5 3.7 1.3
10 Keon Johnson BKN 11.0 4.8 2.4
11 Trendon Watford BKN 10.6 3.8 3.5
12 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 3.3 1.5
13 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.0 4.6 1.6
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.9 7.4 2.2
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.7 3.0 1.6
16 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.7 2.7 1.4
17 Quinten Post GS 7.6 3.9 1.2
18 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.2 1.3
19 Gui Santos GS 4.7 3.1 1.8
20 Kevon Looney GS 4.5 5.1 1.0
21 Dariq Whitehead BKN 4.1 1.4 0.6
22 Kevin Knox II GS 3.9 1.9 0.6
23 Pat Spencer GS 3.0 1.5 0.9
24 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 2.5 1.6 0.6
25 Maxwell Lewis BKN 2.4 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.