NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI24223326105
BOS35293326123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
9% 91%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 34 27 5 6
Lonnie Walker IV 28 17 1 3
Justin Edwards S 30 14 4 2
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 18 10 1 2
Andre Drummond S 25 9 10 2
Quentin Grimes S 33 6 8 5
Adem Bona 13 6 2 1
Jared Butler 11 5 5 1
Ricky Council IV 8 4 2 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 31 4 4 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 31 35 7 2
Payton Pritchard 32 19 4 6
Baylor Scheierman 30 15 3 3
Derrick White S 24 12 3 6
Torrey Craig 20 12 4 1
Luke Kornet S 32 9 7 4
Neemias Queta S 24 8 9 4
Xavier Tillman 7 5 0 0
Jordan Walsh 13 5 4 3
JD Davison 7 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Derrick White makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derrick White BOS
20%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
12%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
5 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
7 Luke Kornet BOS
8%
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
9 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
63%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
9%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.1 8.5 6.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 21.0 3.5 6.0
3 Derrick White BOS 20.5 4.5 5.3
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.4 4.4 3.7
5 Quentin Grimes PHI 18.3 5.5 3.8
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.0 5.4 1.8
7 Justin Edwards PHI 9.7 3.4 1.5
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.6 4.7 1.6
9 Sam Hauser BOS 8.1 3.7 1.3
10 Andre Drummond PHI 7.8 7.4 1.4
11 Luke Kornet BOS 7.0 5.5 2.3
12 Jared Butler PHI 6.3 2.1 2.7
13 Lonnie Walker IV PHI 5.9 2.3 1.3
14 Neemias Queta BOS 5.4 4.0 0.8
15 Torrey Craig BOS 4.5 2.2 0.6
16 Adem Bona PHI 3.8 3.0 0.4
17 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.7 1.4 1.3
18 Ricky Council IV PHI 3.7 1.4 1.0
19 Alex Reese PHI 3.4 1.7 0.6
20 JD Davison BOS 3.2 1.0 0.9
21 Drew Peterson BOS 3.0 1.3 0.8
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.0 1.9 0.8
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.9 1.2 0.5
24 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.