NBA games

IND @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
118–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31323124118
ATL21353038124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ATL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 35 9 3
Aaron Nesmith S 35 21 3 2
Myles Turner S 34 17 9 1
Andrew Nembhard S 30 15 1 10
T.J. McConnell 26 9 4 6
Jarace Walker S 25 8 7 1
Ben Sheppard 23 8 2 1
Obi Toppin 19 3 2 3
Thomas Bryant 14 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Georges Niang 25 24 6 3
Trae Young S 36 22 3 16
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 20 13 2
Dyson Daniels S 35 17 4 5
Terance Mann 22 12 1 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 11 4 2
Caris LeVert 27 8 2 4
Clint Capela 14 6 5 0
Mouhamed Gueye S 23 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mouhamed Gueye · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Mouhamed Gueye makes 5-foot two point shot (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dyson Daniels ATL
14%
2 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
12%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
9%
6 Aaron Nesmith IND
8%
7 Myles Turner IND
7%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
9 Dominick Barlow ATL
7%
10 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
27%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.0 3.0 12.4
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.6 3.5 11.3
3 Caris LeVert ATL 17.8 4.4 3.0
4 Pascal Siakam IND 16.7 5.5 2.5
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 16.3 7.0 4.9
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.6 4.1 2.0
7 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 15.1 9.5 3.2
8 Myles Turner IND 15.0 4.9 2.1
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 13.5 4.5 1.9
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 12.4 4.4 1.8
11 Georges Niang ATL 12.1 4.3 2.0
12 Obi Toppin IND 10.9 4.2 1.9
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 3.0 4.6
14 Terance Mann ATL 9.2 3.1 2.4
15 Thomas Bryant IND 8.8 5.1 1.8
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.8 2.1 4.7
17 Clint Capela ATL 7.6 7.1 1.1
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.2 2.0 2.5
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.6 3.5 1.0
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.5 3.2 1.3
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.2 2.5 0.9
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 4.2 2.6 0.6
23 Jarace Walker IND 3.1 1.6 1.0
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.4 1.5 0.6
25 James Johnson IND 1.6 0.8 0.4
26 RayJ Dennis IND 1.5 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.