NBA games

DET @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
115–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET26313226115
LAC32253432123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAC
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 37 7 10
Dennis Schroder 28 21 6 7
Malik Beasley S 33 14 0 0
Ausar Thompson S 31 10 6 1
Isaiah Stewart 22 10 6 3
Jalen Duren S 26 7 3 4
Ronald Holland II 12 7 0 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 34 7 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 15 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 38 50 4 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 39 23 3 3
Ivica Zubac S 35 22 11 3
Kris Dunn S 30 8 4 6
Amir Coffey 27 7 2 0
Nicolas Batum S 24 5 3 0
Kobe Brown 17 4 4 1
Jordan Miller 17 2 2 0
Drew Eubanks 13 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
18%
2 James Harden LAC
15%
3 Jalen Duren DET
13%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
10%
7 Kris Dunn LAC
8%
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC
8%
9 Malik Beasley DET
5%
10 Simone Fontecchio DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 23.8 4.9 8.4
2 James Harden LAC 21.5 5.3 7.3
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 18.2 11.3 2.7
4 Malik Beasley DET 14.5 2.9 1.7
5 Jalen Duren DET 14.1 10.8 3.5
6 Ausar Thompson DET 13.3 5.4 3.9
7 Amir Coffey LAC 11.2 2.7 1.4
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 10.8 2.7 2.9
9 Kris Dunn LAC 9.6 4.3 3.8
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.3 2.7 1.9
11 Dennis Schroder DET 8.2 2.6 3.7
12 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 4.8 1.1
13 Ronald Holland II DET 5.7 2.4 1.2
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.4 3.4 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 4.9 1.3 2.4
16 Drew Eubanks LAC 4.3 3.0 0.7
17 Paul Reed DET 4.2 3.5 0.9
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.2 2.2 0.7
19 Lindy Waters III DET 2.7 1.1 0.7
20 Tolu Smith DET 2.7 2.0 0.6
21 Jordan Miller LAC 2.7 1.5 0.5
22 Patty Mills LAC 2.3 0.7 0.6
23 Kobe Brown LAC 1.7 1.0 0.5
24 Cam Christie LAC 1.6 0.8 0.3
25 Bobi Klintman DET 1.4 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.